Premium tool · Gameweek 7
Differential Radar
Under 10% owned, ranked by chance of a goal or assist.
Pick of the week
GO
Gonzalo García
FUL · FWD · HUL (H)
Goal 70%Assist 30%
41%goal or assist
0.50xG / 90
0.08xA / 90
83minutes
4/4starts
7.3%owned
£6.1mprice
3.9xPts
Why him
0.63 xGI per 90 over his last 511 minutes (0.53 xG, 0.10 xA); the model uses 0.58 after blending with the FWD average; at home to HUL; started 4 of his last 4, averaging 83 minutes; first choice on penalties.
The top 10 at a glance
GO
9 more differentials are waiting
Top 10 by position
Forwards 7
Midfielders 3
What a 41% chance looks like
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A return in about 4 of 10 such games. A blank in the other 6.
Track record
No live gameweek has been scored yet. Gameweek 7 is the first, and its result goes here after the last match, whatever it is.
Backtest, GW1 to GW6 not live picks
Top 5 each week
30%Radar 9/30
17%Form 5/30
Top 10 each week
38%Radar 23/60
18%Form 11/60
Share of picks that returned a goal or assist. "Form" is simply the best-form players under 10% owned. Six gameweeks is a small sample and the model was adjusted after looking at them, so the live record is the one that counts.
How this works
- The chance comes from each player's expected goals and assists per 90 over recent gameweeks, blended with last season, and from the minutes he has been playing.
- Only regular starters who are not flagged as injured are considered.
- The opponent is not part of the number yet: in the gameweeks played so far, adjusting for the fixture made the chances less accurate.
- Not included: team news after the picks were saved, rotation that recent minutes do not show, and clean-sheet or defensive points.
- Data: official Fantasy Premier League API. Model 1.1.0. Picks saved 2026-10-13 18:59 Dubai (UTC+4).