Gameweek 38 is here, and this is genuinely the final chance to change your season. Every transfer matters. Every captain pick could define whether you finish strong or slip away. I’ve played this game for over a decade, and I can tell you: GW38 is where careful preparation meets calculated risk.
All 10 matches kick off simultaneously on Sunday, 24 May at 15:00, which means no mid-game tinkering. You’re all in. No watching a 9:00 game and pivoting based on injuries. This is about making the right calls now—fixture difficulty, rotation risk, form, and fixture momentum all packed into one final gameweek.
Let’s break down what matters and who you should be backing.
GW38 Fixture Difficulty: Which Teams Get the Dream Matchup?
Fixture difficulty in the final week is deceptive. Teams fighting for European places or running away with the league will be incentivised to play attacking football. Teams already safe or already relegated? They might rotate heavily.
| Team | Opponent | Team Difficulty | Opp. Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | vs Aston Villa (H) | 5 | 3 |
| Arsenal | vs Crystal Palace (A) | 4 | 3 |
| Liverpool | vs Brentford (H) | 4 | 3 |
| Brighton | vs Man Utd (H) | 4 | 3 |
| Fulham | vs Newcastle (H) | 3 | 3 |
| Man Utd | vs Brighton (A) | 3 | 4 |
| Wolves | vs Burnley (A) | 1 | 2 |
| Aston Villa | vs Man City (A) | 3 | 5 |
The big story: Wolves have a 1 difficulty rating—they’re genuinely one of the easiest teams to play against. Burnley (2) face the same opponent and look the better option. Meanwhile, Man City face Aston Villa but are still heavily favoured despite the difficulty rating mismatch.
Use the Fixture Difficulty tool to cross-reference these ratings with form and recent performance. A difficulty-5 fixture doesn’t automatically mean avoid it if the team in question has momentum and attacking players fit.
Haaland: Start or Finally Sell?
Erling Haaland is the season’s golden asset. 239 points, 27 goals, 8 assists, 64.3% ownership. He’s been in almost every winning mini-league team I know.
Here’s the tension: Man City face Aston Villa at home, a match City will likely dominate. Haaland starts as heavy favourite for captaincy across the entire player base. That’s the problem. If he hauls (18+ points), everyone gets it. If he blanks, you’re in good company—but everyone’s in that company too.
My take? Start him. Don’t overthink it. City will be on the front foot, Haaland’s form is exceptional (6.8 form), and Villa’s difficulty-3 rating suggests openings. The ownership paradox works both ways: backing the popular pick when the numbers align isn’t weakness, it’s sense.
Selling Haaland this week would be spite, not strategy. You’ve ridden him this far—see it through.
Bruno Fernandes & Midfield: Who’s in Form?
Bruno sits on 221 points, 8 goals and 23 assists. He’s had an incredible season, but Brighton away is a trickier fixture than you’d expect at first glance.
The real gems here are deeper: Anderson (Nott’m Forest, £5.6m) is the standout transfer in this week with 91k moves and an 8.5 form rating. He’s flying. Gibbs-White (£7.5m) from the same club is at 6.0 form with 81k transfers in. Both face Bournemouth, a mid-table side with a 3-3 fixture difficulty draw.
Szoboszlai (Liverpool, £7.1m) has 71k transfers in and faces Brentford at home. Liverpool’s difficulty-4 rating and Szoboszlai’s recent form make him appealing, though he’s not guaranteed to start every match in a fluid Liverpool setup.
Form matters more than price in GW38. Anderson’s 8.5 rating is the highest on the board. If you have budget, he’s a smarter punt than a premium mid coasting at 3.5 form.
Defenders: The Quiet Winners
Gabriel (Arsenal, £7.3m) has 208 points and a 7.8 form rating—elite defensive output. Arsenal face Crystal Palace away (difficulty 4 vs 3), which is tighter than you’d hope, but Gabriel’s attacking returns keep him valuable.
Guéhi (Man City, £5.1m) with 179 points and 5.6 form should start at left-back. Senesi (Bournemouth, £5.2m) is at 7.5 form and has 55k transfers in. Against Nott’m Forest (both 3 difficulty), he’s a solid plug-in-and-forget option.
Tarkowski (Everton, £5.8m) at 5.2 form faces Spurs (both 3 difficulty). He’s been under-owned (12.7%) all season, which might be your edge here if Everton are motivated for a strong finish.
Virgil (Liverpool, £6.0m) has 173 points and 5.2 form, plus 66k transfers in this week. Liverpool’s home fixture vs Brentford is inviting, though rotation risk exists if City’s result earlier in the day is decisive for the title.
Forwards: Depth Over Reputation
Thiago (Brentford, £7.3m) is being transferred OUT en masse (111k departures). That’s a huge red flag. Brentford face Liverpool away, one of the toughest environments. His 2.8 form screams fatigue.
João Pedro (Chelsea, £7.4m) is also moving OUT heavily (85k) despite 176 points and 37.5% ownership. Chelsea play Sunderland at home (both 3 difficulty)—a winnable game—but his 2.5 form suggests he’s hit a wall. Trust the exodus here.
Bowen (West Ham, £7.7m) is being transferred IN massively (114k) with 4.0 form. West Ham face Leeds (2 difficulty), the weakest team relative to their opponent. If Bowen starts and plays full 90, he has ceiling. But West Ham’s motivation in May is a question mark.
Calvert-Lewin (Leeds, £5.8m) has 62k transfers in and faces West Ham away. He’s unlikely to be heavily rotated, but Leeds’ position means this is a defensive grind, not an attacking clinic. Avoid unless you’re chasing points desperately.
Key Takeaways for GW38
- All matches kick off at 15:00 simultaneously: No pivoting mid-gameweek. Lock in your team with confidence and no regrets.
- Form over fixture difficulty: Anderson (8.5 form) matters more than a mid-premium coasting at 3.5 against a difficulty-2 opponent.
- Watch the transfer movements: 111k transfers out of Thiago isn’t noise—it’s collective wisdom. Honour it.
- Rotation risk is real: Man City, Liverpool, and Arsenal might rest key players if results elsewhere seal outcomes before their kick-off.
- Use your captain carefully: Haaland is the safest haul play, but if he’s 64% owned and blanks, you’ve followed the herd. Accept that.
FPL GW38 Team of the Week
Based on form, fixture, and likelihood of playing time, here’s my XI:
Goalkeeper: Raya (Arsenal) — Fresh price rise, clean-sheet odds favourable against Palace.
Defence: Gabriel (Arsenal), Guéhi (Man City), Senesi (Bournemouth), Virgil (Liverpool)
Midfield: Anderson (Nott’m Forest), Szoboszlai (Liverpool), Gibbs-White (Nott’m Forest), Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd)
Forward: Haaland (Man City), Bowen (West Ham)
That’s balanced exposure to City’s dominance, Liverpool’s home advantage, Arsenal’s European ambition, and the form-in-flux of Nott’m Forest’s exciting midfield pair. It’s not a novelty team—it’s designed to return.
Start, Bench, Sell for GW38
Haaland (Man City, FWD) — START
239 points, 6.8 form, 64.3% owned. Yes, everyone has him. Yes, that’s frustrating when points spread thin. But the fixture is right, the form is elite, and selling him on principle is ego, not football. Start him, captain him, move on.
Thiago (Brentford, FWD) — BENCH
111k transfers out this week. His 2.8 form is screaming for a rest. Liverpool away is a horrible final fixture for a worn-out forward. You might have picked him weeks ago—he’s been brilliant—but this week demands he sits. Use the bench slot properly.
João Pedro (Chelsea, FWD) — SELL
85k transfers out. 2.5 form. Chelsea play a winnable game at home, yet the collective exodus is too loud to ignore. He’s hit the wall. If you still have him, this is the week to move on. Free up funds or upgrade his role in your squad.
Final GW38 Advice: Check Your Bench
Your bench matters this week because there’s only one round of matches. A defender on your bench isn’t being rotated back in; he’s staying there for 90 minutes. Bench your highest-risk player (a likely rested midfielder, a flagged injury) and keep your substitute slot for genuine coverage only.
Visit the Captain Impact tool to model your captaincy choice across different scenarios. If City lose 2-0 to Villa before Liverpool kick off, and Szoboszlai hauls 15 points as a result of Liverpool’s attacking response, would you regret captaining Haaland? Model it. Know it. Accept it.
FAQ: GW38 Common Questions
Who are the best FPL players to pick for Gameweek 38?
Haaland (Man City) is the safest premium. For differential exposure, back Anderson (8.5 form, Nott’m Forest) and Gibbs-White (6.0 form, same club) against Bournemouth. Szoboszlai offers Liverpool’s home-fixture advantage. Senesi at Bournemouth and Virgil at Liverpool are your defensive anchors.
Who should I bench in Gameweek 38?
Bench Thiago (2.8 form, Liverpool away) and João Pedro (2.5 form, despite Chelsea’s home fixture). These are the highest-rotation-risk, lowest-form names among popular assets. Your bench is your safety valve this week.
Should I captain Haaland or is there a better option?
Haaland is the statistically correct choice: home fixture, elite form, vs a team he should dominate. If you want to differentiate, captain Szoboszlai (Liverpool’s creativity at home could be unstoppable), but accept that if Haaland hauls and you’ve captained elsewhere, it’s a mathematical loss. Haaland is the 64% play because it’s the right play.
Make your final moves with FPL360’s Price Changes page to spot last-minute value shifts. Check the Dashboard to confirm your mini-league rivals’ teams. Then lock it in. GW38 waits for no one.
