Eredivisie market values: Jurriën Timber alone on top – Premier League targets on the rise

Some Ajax stars downgraded 

The transfer market may be closed, but it’s influence still echoes through the market value update in the Dutch Eredivisie. New signings, rumours and transfers that were very close, but ultimately didn’t go through are the reason that the Dutch market value experts of Transfermarkt got an even better perspective on the values of several players in their league. It resulted in big boosts for Cody Gakpo, Steven Bergwijn, Ibrahim Sangaré, Edson Alvarez and Calvin Bassey. None of them, however, got close to the most valuable player in the Dutch league: Ajax defender Jurriën Timber (21), who got another €10 million added to his value, which rose to €45m.

Timber already was the most valuable player in Holland after Antony (to Manchester United) and Sébastien Haller (to Borussia Dortmund) left the league, but with his new rise, he only widens the gap to the rest of the league even more. At the end of last season, Timber seemed destined for a busy transfer window, with rumours linking him to Man Utd and Bayern Munich, amongst other clubs. The defender chose to extend his contract at Ajax, which means that clubs will probably have to pay even more to lure the Oranje international away from the Johan Cruijff Arena. In a world where Ajax players are suddenly breaking the €100m mark, a new value for Timber had to go alongside a big rise, hence the €10m climb from €35m to €45m.

The new runner up in the Eredivisie is PSV winger Gakpo (23). The playmaker kept all his options open for most of the transfer window. It was only on the last day that both he and PSV stated that the Dutch international wasn’t going anywhere. Attempts by several Premier League clubs like Leeds United, Southampton and again Man Utd tried to poach him away from his club but were unsuccessful. The amounts they offered (reportedly around €30m) couldn’t persuade PSV to part with their home-grown talent. Together with a good start to the season in the Eredivisie, in which Gakpo has already scored seven times, means a clims to €35m seemed logical to the Dutch market value experts. If the attacker had been more decisive in European matches, he would probably have gone up to around €38m or even €40m. Teammate Sangaré completes the Dutch top three with a new valuation of €32m. His situation was comparable with Timbers; a lot of interest, but ultimately deciding to sign a new contract.

The fourth player that stayed in Holland and sees his market values climb, is Ajax defender/midfielder Alvarez. The Mexican did everything to get his transfer to Chelsea and even refused to train for a few days in Amsterdam. However, his transfer didn’t go through because Ajax refused to let anyone else leave, after the blockbuster trade of Antony to Man Utd. Even the sizable sum of €50m coudn’t persuade director of football Klaas-Jan Huntelaar to part with the player. A transfer is still possible in the winter, though, so Transfermarkt decided to upgrade the Mexican international from €22m to €30m.

The Eredivisie has never received so much money in one transfer window before and as a result, the league has never spent so much money in a single transfer period as well. Steven Bergwijn became the most expensive signing in the league’s history when he moved from Tottenham to Ajax for €32.25m. His former valuation of €18m was therefore upgraded to €27m to get him closer to the actual sum that was paid. For the first time in Ajax’s history, the club spent over €100m in one transfer window, with Bassey (bought for €23m from Rangers, upgraded from €10m to €18m), Brian Brobbey (bought for €16.25m from RB Leipzig, upgraded from €9m to €14m) and Ahmetcan Kaplan (bought for €9m from Trabzonspor, upgraded from €2.8m to €5m) also receiving upgrades for the same reason as Bergwijn.

The same goes for other signings in the league. Quinten Timber, Jurriën’s twin brother, decided to join his brother’s arch rivals Feyenoord from FC Utrecht for €7.8m. His value also rises to more or less the amount that was paid by the Rotterdam club. Timber is now valued at €8.5m, a rise of €4.5m. Defender David Hancko climbs from €2.5m to €7m after being bought from Sparta Prague for €6m.

However, the transfer window wasn’t the only reason to push up the values of some players. The start of the new season also meant an opportunity for several youngsters to show what they are made of. The best example may be Xavi Simons, the young talent with more followers on Instagram than most fully-established stars in the league. The playmaker decided to leave Paris Saint-Germain this summer to join PSV in order to get more playing time.

Simons had been named one of the biggest talents in Dutch football for years, and in his first few weeks as a member of a first-team squad he has shown why. With six goals in the Eredivisie and providing the creativity that PSV has been lacking, he has earned a 100% in his market value, doubling from €4m to €8m. At Ajax, a spot in the starting XI means an even bigger rise for Kenneth Taylor, who climbs from €4.5m to €12m. At AZ, Milos Kerkez proves to be a natural heir to Owen Wijndal’s left back position with his attacking rushes and defensive stability. The 18 year old Hungarian rises to €3m – an increase of €2.3m.

Only a few players have been downgraded in the Eredivisie in this update. Amongst the most important market value losers are Ajax senior stars Dusan Tadic (-€3.5m to €8m) and Daley Blind (-€2m to €7m). Their relatively high age is clearly the biggest factor for their downgrades, but in Ajax’s Serbian captain’s case, his poor start to the season also meant that a downgrade seemed logical. Noni Madueke has also seen his value drop by €3m down to €15m due to injuries. 

How Transfermarkt market values work

The Transfermarkt market values are calculated, taking into account various pricing models. A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees. 

The goal is not to predict a price but an expected value of a player in a free market. Both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant in determining market values. Examples of this are listed below. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (you can find the detailed market value definition here).

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