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Transfermarkt has updated the market values of all Bundesliga players for the first time this season, giving four footballers an upgrade beyond the 10 million mark. Many German U21 internationals are among the winners this time, while the squads of Bayern Munich and BVB receive the biggest minus.
The fact that there is a minus of €21 million for the squad of the “autumn champions” is mainly due to the devaluation for the best player in the Bundesliga – the market value of Robert Lewandowski drops from €60 million to €50 million. Market value admin Martin Freundl (Soyen) explains: “At 33, athletic performance alone is no longer sufficient to fully compensate for the age effect on the market. Therefore, we have adjusted his market value downward.”
Despite this devaluation, Lewandowski is among the world’s top players in the international comparison of players aged 32 or older, with Lionel Messi ahead and Cristiano Ronaldo behind him. In fourth place follows Thomas Müller, who assisted the most goals in Europe in the first half of the season and nonetheless receives a minus. “Due to the restrained market activity in his age group, we correct his market value from €30 million to €25 million, despite absolutely convincing performances,” Freundl says.
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There are devaluations of €5 million each for the new signings from Leipzig, Marcel Sabitzer and Dayot Upamecano and Joshua Kimmich, while Leroy Sané is the biggest winner in the ranks of the record titleholders. Under head coach Julian Nagelsmann, the international brings the consistency that once made him one of the most valuable wingers at Manchester City – the consequence: an upgrade from €60 million to €70 million.
Bundesliga market values: Schick, Burkardt & Mavropanos the big winners
Only three players have earned an even bigger plus: Patrik Schick (Bayer Leverkusen), Konstantinos Mavropanos (VfB Stuttgart) and Jonathan Burkardt (Mainz 05). “Schick convinced in the first half of the season with an outstanding scoring rate. Together with the good performances at the European Championship, we expect a strong increase in market interest. Due to this positive trend, the Czech records a jump of €12 million to €40 million,” Freundl justifies the highest upgrade of the update.
Away from the Champions League places, VfB defender Mavropanos recorded an increase of a whopping €11 million, giving him a new market value of €17 million. The Greek finally remained injury-free in the first half of the season and was able to fully realise his potential in both defence and attack.
Mainz’s own youngster Burkardt, who is making a splash in both the Bundesliga and Germany’s U21s, also shone in the offense in particular. For the centre-forward, it goes from €6.5 million to €17 million. He is thus on the heels of fellow European champions Nico Schlotterbeck (Freiburg), who makes a jump from €13 million to €20 million, and Lukas Nmecha (Wolfsburg), who is upgraded from €12 million to €18 million.
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“As different as their careers are – Burkardt moved to Mainz as a 13-year-old, Nmecha played in the City youth system with many loan spells and Schlotterbeck completed transfers from Baden to Swabia and back again – they have one thing in common: Hansi Flick knows their phone numbers. Nmecha was already allowed to debut in the national team, Schlotterbeck knows how nominations feel and the name Burkardt will soon be automatically looked for when the squad is announced,” market value admin Julius Weissenstein (Savarez03) says.
The Germany squad also includes Matthias Ginter and Florian Neuhaus, for whom things were mixed at Borussia Mönchengladbach in the first half of the season, which has now resulted in new devaluations – in each case the fourth in a row. Weissenstein says: “Ginter has gone from being the head of the defines to a factor of uncertainty in Gladbach’s central defence, which is why the critical voices from his own fan camp are increasing. As a result of this development, his market value drops from €27 million to 24 million euros.” For Neuhaus, it goes even further down with a minus of €6 million to €22 million.
Squad values: BVB biggest loser, Mainz with biggest percentage gain
As a result, Gladbach, who are only two points clear of the relegation places, are one of the teams with the highest devaluation: the minus of €11.8 million corresponds to 4.3% of the former squad value. Only bottom-placed Greuther Fürth (-6.5%), Wolfsburg (-6.6%) and Hertha BSC (-7.5%), who were disappointing for long periods, have lost more in squad value.
In absolute terms, there is the biggest drop for Borussia Dortmund (-4%) – the BVB squad, with five upgrades and 13 downgrades, falls by €23.9 million. Meanwhile, the biggest winners in this ranking are Mainz 05 (+14.9%), Union Berlin (+10.3%) and SC Freiburg (+8%).
How Transfermarkt market values work
The Transfermarkt market values are calculated, taking into account various pricing models. A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees.
The goal is not to predict a price but an expected value of a player in a free market. Both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant in determining market values. Examples of this are listed below. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (you can find the detailed market value definition here).
