If history has taught us anything, it’s that seemingly no early-season margin is insurmountable. So, how much of a gap do Liverpool need before they become the Premier League’s uncatchables?
Arne Slot’s team came into this weekend with an eight-point lead, and will extend their advantage over reigning champions Manchester City to 11 if they beat Pep Guardiola’s side at Anfield today. Maybe this campaign will turn out the same way as 2019-20, when Liverpool started fast and kept going while everyone else fell away. Or perhaps City or Arsenal — or even Chelsea — will slowly hunt them down over the coming months.
Most neutrals will hope for the latter. Seasons that see a shifting of momentum tend to be more memorable than those where a dominant side canters into the distance. There’s a reason the tortoise’s sole victory against the hare was the only result between them that was turned into a fable.
To better understand which way this one is likely to go, here are all the examples from Premier League seasons past of leads of eight or more points — this far or further into a campaign — being turned around.
The 1990s
Not only were slow starts more common in the 1990s, they were almost seen as righteous. It was a time when people could still remember Liverpool coming from 12th place on Christmas Day 1981 to eventually win the title. Title winners used to lose more often: the English champions of the 1960s lost an average of 7.7 games per season, dipping to 6.0 in the 1970s and then rising to 6.6 in the 1980s. So it makes sense that the early days of the Premier League (a time, remember, when you could revamp your squad at any point between August and March) followed a similar pattern.
1992-93 — Manchester United
A mere seven wins from their opening 17 games and a 12-point deficit to — *checks notes* — Norwich City, albeit with a game in hand, did not prevent Manchester United from winning the inaugural ‘FA Premier League’ title, eventually by a comfortable 10 points, as nearest challengers Aston Villa and Norwich City (who ended the season with a goal difference of -4 but still came third) fell away. A strange season really, but one with a soon-to-be-familiar conclusion.
Steve Bruce’s Easter miracle (Dennis Hussey/Mirrorpix/Getty Images)
1995-96 — Manchester United
The connoisseur’s comeback/collapse? Everyone focuses on Newcastle letting such a handsome lead slip (Collymore was closing in, Manchester United did have to go to Middlesbrough and get something), but Manchester United’s relentlessness in the spring is often underplayed. Between the start of March and April 17, United scored only 10 goals in eight games, but picked up 19 points. The team that falters makes the headlines, but the dogged pursuer is what makes the stumble matter.
1996-97 — Manchester United
Manchester United enjoyed the previous season’s prolonged chase so much that they did it again the following season. Newcastle were involved once more — as were, semi-ludicrously, Wimbledon — but it was Liverpool who looked set to win their first title in seven years. Roy Evans’ side were top at Christmas and top at New Year but four wins in their final 12 games ensured another title win for Alex Ferguson, while Liverpool slipping out of the top three saw the phrase ‘fourth in a two-horse race’ become temporarily fashionable.
1997-98 — Arsenal
Most people remember Arsene Wenger was the first overseas manager to win a league title in England. But fewer recall just what sort of position they did it from. This was the latest point in the season that Arsenal trailed the leaders by (a Premier League record) 13 points, after which a run of 15 wins and three draws in 18 games took the title to Highbury for the first time in seven years and justified their new manager’s focus on concepts such as ‘pasta’ and ‘recovery’. For pacesetters Manchester United, it was a run of three defeats in four games at the turn of the year (to Coventry City, Southampton and Leicester City) that fatally opened the door.
Dennis Bergkamp completes his hat-trick against Leicester in 1997 (Mark Thompson /Allsport)
The 2000s
It’s not surprising that there’s only one notable turnaround in the 2000s, an era that increasingly saw one team streak away to win the title, plus a handful of close-fought battles to keep things interesting. The only 1990s-style come-from-behind points hunt came in…
2002-03 — Manchester United
Arsenal should really have won three successive Premier League titles between 2002 and 2004 but an inconsistent-yet-still-dangerous Manchester United poked their noses in to steal one. The chant of the season from United fans was, “We want our trophy back,” and a run of 15 wins and three draws after losing to Middlesbrough on Boxing Day ensured that dream became reality. Arsenal lost only two of their final 21 games but a 2-2 draw with United at Highbury in April and a home defeat to Leeds in May cost them dearly. The consolation was Wenger’s side remained unbeaten for 49 league games after that loss. You might have heard about it.
GO DEEPER
Manchester United, Arsenal and the ‘Battle of the Buffet’ – told by those who were there
The end of the Ferguson-era
No manager used the points chase better than Ferguson, but he was a victim of the scene in his penultimate season, while the first Premier League campaign after his retirement also witnessed a hefty turnaround.
2011-12 — Manchester City
As simple as it gets really. Two teams from one city with six games left to play. An eight-point gap separating them after a dreadful run of one win in five from Manchester City had all but handed yet another title to Manchester United. But in a rare example of cross-city solidarity, United proceeded to lose at Wigan Athletic, draw 4-4 with Everton and then fall to a 1-0 defeat at the Etihad in one of the Premier League’s all-timer six-pointers. It meant City just needed to beat relegation-threatened Queens Park Rangers at home on the final day, which, famously, they managed with ease.
Vincent Kompany scores the goal that recalibrated the 2011-12 title race (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
2013-14 — Manchester City
When is a gap not a gap? Well, Manchester City’s nine-point deficit here was mitigated by them having two games in hand, but the fact that Liverpool had only three games left meant they had a defined pathway to what would have been a first league title for 14 years. City could get a maximum of 86 points after drawing 2-2 with Sunderland in their 33rd game (and they duly did so). Two wins and a draw was the target for Brendan Rodgers’ side — to take them to 87. Maybe, then, they should have played for a draw against Mohamed Salah’s Chelsea in game 36, before cantering to easy wins against Crystal Palace and Newcastle. That is not what happened, though.
Steven Gerrard’s slip lets in Demba Ba to score for Chelsea (Simon Stacpoole/Mark Leech Sports Photography/Getty Images)
Pep Guardiola — recovery master
Perhaps the biggest concern for Liverpool as they luxuriate in their current lead is that although Manchester City look as weak as they ever have done under Guardiola, few managers have shown such ability to hunt down a distant leader. Based on that arbitrary mark of being eight points behind the leaders at this stage or later in a Premier League season, City have come back four times under Guardiola, including in three of the past four campaigns.
2018-19 — Manchester City
Many would argue that the Premier League peaked in 2018-19, with two generational teams fighting it out and posting supernatural points totals. Liverpool became the first team to lose only once and not win the league. It’s hard to say that a team who suffers just one defeat in 38 games has thrown it away, but a spell of four draws in six games in late winter was what allowed City to catch up via a burst of 18 wins and one defeat in the second half of the season. Few title races can be boiled down to a few millimetres but had John Stones’ clearance been a fraction slower, Liverpool would have finished the season unbeaten, and as champions. Assuming everything else had happened in the same fashion, which parallel universe experts would say is unlikely. Still, some race.
Fine margins in 2019 (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
2020-21 — Manchester City
Christmas Day 2020, not a classic of the genre — and for Manchester City fans, even the football was gloomy, with reigning champions Liverpool eight points clear and seemingly on their way to a successful title defence. But things — as City fans are finding out this season — can change fast. Liverpool drew at home to West Bromwich Albion in their first game after Christmas and would win only three of the next 13 after that, including a club-record six home league defeats in succession. Meanwhile, City won 14 in a row from Boxing Day onwards to reclaim the title. They haven’t relinquished it since.
2022-23 — Manchester City
Self-styled cruel month April did a number on Arsenal in 2023 just as they had sight of the Premier League title. Three draws and a defeat might not have stopped you from winning the league in the 1990s (Blackburn ended the 1994-95 season with three defeats and a draw in their final six games and still got over the line in first place), but this is the 2020s. Manchester City won 12 successive games to hunt down and eliminate Mikel Arteta’s side, before adding the FA Cup and Champions League, too.
Aaron Ramsdale rues an opportunity missed (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
2023-24 — Manchester City
File last season under: people getting overly excited about a Manchester City deficit when actually everything was fine. City’s successful involvement in the Club World Cup meant they had two games in hand, so the advantage Liverpool and Arsenal had at Christmas was effectively a mirage, especially against a team who could — and did — win 18 and draw three of their 21 games from the point in time highlighted above. Like Ferguson, Guardiola knows how to cajole his team to extraordinary runs of form in the second half of a season.
The only question that remains is: can he do it again?
(Top photo: Kevin Keegan holds his head during Newcastle’s match against Leeds United in April 1996; by Stu Forster/Allsport via Getty Images)
