Who is Brenner? – Nottingham Forest join Udinese in the chase for MLS star

Trained individually on Monday 

This article first appeared on January 12 and has been updated with new information.

FC Cincinnati striker Brenner is undoubtedly a player to watch this transfer window. Indeed, it was already reported by MLSSoccer.com writer Tom Bogert and Queen City Express journalist Laurel Pfahler that Serie A side Udinese had made an offer for around $9-10 million (€8-9 million), including add-ons and a cell on percentage for the 22-year-old Brazilian striker. Transfermarkt previously reported that interest in the Brazilian is high, and according to a report by MLSSoccer.com Premier League side Nottingham Forest have now launched a bid to sign the striker ahead of deadline day on Tuesday. 

The additional offer by Nottingham is good news for FC Cincinnati. Although the deal offered by Udinese earlier this month is high and would have constituted a new record transfer for Cincinnati and make Brenner one of the most expensive outgoing transfers in Major League Soccer history (overview). But the fee offered by the Italians is significantly below the €11.8m ($13m) Cincinnati paid to São Paulo in 2021. Furthermore, São Paulo released in a club statement at the time that they retained a percentage of the player’s rights. One source added that Cincinnati may have had to pay add-ons in the region of $2m as well. The Nottingham Forest deal, however, is not much better. The EPL club has offered an initial loan with a purchase option. The deal is made more complicated by the fact that Brenner is now pushing for a move. 

“There were huge expectations after Brenner was signed for $13m,” Transfermarkt Data Administrator North America Dominic Becker said. “Unfortunately, he struggled in that first season, which also meant that his market value dropped [from €9m after his transfer to just €7m]. But then, in the second half of the 2022 season, he was the best forward in the league. Three hattricks, two braces, and 18 goals overall in just three and a half months.”

Brenner market value is on the up but still below the original fee paid

Not surprisingly, Brenner’s market value started to trend back up. The Brazilian saw his market value increase to €8m in the November update. That latest evaluation almost matches the bid made by Udinese. In fact, it is almost typical of Udinese to make a bid now when the player is still trending upwards rather than in a season or two from now when Brenner’s market value might finally match the transfer fee paid by FC Cincinnati. 

“Marcio Amoroso, Alexis Sanchez, Juan Cuadrado, and Nahuel Molina are just a few of the names: Udinese has developed an excellent reputation over the last 25 years when it comes to finding South American talent, bringing them to Europe and developing them into elite players,” Transfermarkt journalist and Italy expert Marius Soyke said. “The depth in which Udinese have scouted the South American market has made them one of the pioneers in Europe.” 

With that in mind, it is not unreasonable to think that Udinese have had Brenner on their radar for some time. With the Brazilian showing signs of promise, the offer might also preclude potential interest from other Italian teams or clubs from other top-four leagues with deeper pockets. Because, make no mistake, based on last season’s numbers, Brenner could very well develop into one of the hottest transfer targets in Major League Soccer. Udinese’s record of scouting South American talent is unlikely to have been lost on Nottingham Forest either, which would explain the late interest by the English club.

Brenner and Vázquez formed deadly duo for FC Cincinnati

Brenner and Brandon Vázquez formed the most dangerous attack in MLS last season. One of the big reasons Brenner made a big jump last season has been his clinical finishing inside the box. According to Wyscout, the Brazilian outperformed his 13.91 xG last season. A typical box striker, Brenner ranked among the top 20 with 4.42 touches per 90 minutes inside the box. 

Also, unlike his teammate Vázquez, who led the league with six headed goals, Brenner seems to score from everywhere. Although listed as right-footed, Brenner scored eight goals with his left foot last season, which ranked him eighth in the league. 

Finally, there is Brenner’s Goalimpact number. Goalimpact measures the extent to which a player contributes to the goal difference of a team. If a player is assigned a high index value, then the team has a good goal difference when this player is on the pitch compared to matches where this player is not active.

Brenner to Udinese or Nottingham? – Cincinnat are willing to listen to offers

Brenner’s Goalimpact right now is 105, which would rank him just above the Serie A average of 104. His peak Goalimpact of 118 does make him a top player in that league—values in the Premier League are similar. But most importantly, that trend has been on an upwards curve, and the striker is now entering five years where forwards tend to trend upward strongly. That will also likely reflect his market value, especially if he remains a top player in MLS. 

Brenner: The Brazilian’s Goalimpact number has been on upwards trajectory

Udinese—or any other club—are very much aware of this, which is why they are trying to beat the trend now, signing the striker before he becomes unaffordable. At FC Cincinnati, in the meantime, there is a growing sense that the time might be now to cash in on their prime asset but only for the right price. 

With that in mind, it will be interesting to see whether Brenner will be on the move before the January transfer window shuts on Tuesday evening. Brenner did not train on the weekend and then had an individual session on Monday as Cincinnati are protecting their asset before a potential transfer. No matter what happens next, the club that will start February with the striker will have a significant asset on board. 

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