Winter update Serie A
Transfermarkt.it has updated all market values of the Italian Serie A, causing a significant movement in the ranking of the squad values. While league champions Inter Milan were able to stabilize their place as one of the top clubs in Europe with a market value of €525 million, record champions Juventus dropped by €73.5 million to now €529 million and is, therefore, ranked just ahead of their league rivals. The biggest winners are promoted Empoli (+€16.9m) and Fiorentina (+€14.3m) around top scorer Dušan Vlahović. The forward sees his market value increase by €20 million to now €70 million.
The 21-year-old Serbian forward has been fantastic in 2021, scoring 33 goals within the calendar month, breaking the record set by former Juve striker Cristiano Ronaldo in 2020. This season Vlahović leads, scoring with 16 goals in Serie A. “For Vlahović, 2021 was exceptional,” Area Manager Transfermarkt.it Jatin Dietl said. “After rejecting to renew his contract, which expires in 2023, the forward has been targeted by several top clubs and despite just having one year left at the Viola next summer will generate a record fee.”
Among the forwards aged 23 or under, only two forwards are more valuable than Vlahović: Kylian Mbappé (€160m) and Erling Haaland (€150m). In Serie A, only Lautaro Martínez (€80m) has a higher market value than the Viola forward. Vlahović has caught up to Juve winger Federico Chiesa and midfielders Sergej Milinković-Savić (Lazio) and Nicolò Barella (Inter Milan). The latter is a designated captain and a top earner at his club and, as a result, sees his market value increase by €5 million. Barella and Chiesa are now the two most valuable Italians.
Most valuable Serie A players
Market values Serie A: Barella, Calhanoglu, and Tonali among the winners
Barella is not the only winner at Inter Milan. His teammate Milan Srkiniar is one of the strongest defenders in Serie A. His market value increased by €5 million to now €65 million. Another player in great form has been Hakan Calhanoglu. In recent weeks, the former Bundesliga star has been one of the most productive midfielders in Europe’s top leagues. After scoring six goals and eight assists, Calhanoglu sees his market value return to his preseason value of €35 million. The midfielder’s market value previously dropped after playing a poor Euros with Turkey, which led to him receiving just the one offer from Inter Milan last summer.
Unlike Inter, both AC Milan (-€2.6m to €474m) and Napoli (-€15.7m to €503m) were unable to hold their respective records in quad value. The Nerazzurri struggled with injuries in the last few weeks and has, therefore, dropped down in the standings. At Milan, midfielder Franck Kessié drops by €7 million to €48 million. The same is true for his former double-pivot partner Ismaël Bennacer, who drops by €8 million to €30 million. The two are among the biggest losers.
“Kessié is just a few months away from leaving Milan on a free transfer,” Dietl said. “At his club, he has lost his leadership role, not just because of his contract situations.” Sandro Tonali has profited from Kessié and Bennacer’s struggle. The 21-year-old had a poor first season but is now fulfilling his potential. Tonali saw his market value increase by €7 million to €35 million—the same value as Rafael Leão, one of the biggest winners at AC. The Portuguese sees his market value increase by €10 million after playing his strongest half-season since his €29.5 million transfer in 2019.
Serie A market values: Downgrade for older players like Insigne, Morata & Co.
Napoli is one of many teams in Italy where age had a significant impact on market value downgrades. One example is 30-year-old defender Kalidou Koulibaly (-€3m to €45m). “Many of the top players in Italy are around 30 or older—with COVID hitting clubs hard, the market for older players is weaker,” Dietl said. “We have reacted accordingly not just in Italy but also the other top leagues—even if players like Lazio’s 31-year-old Ciro Immobile or Inter’s Stefan de Vrij, he will turn 30 in February, are still important players.” Immobile dropped by €8 million to €30 million and De Vrij by €5 million to €45 million.
The drop is even steeper for players who have struggled to reach their form of the previous season. One of them is Napoli captain Lorenzo Insigne; his market value drop was moved after winning the Euros to this update where he dropped by €13 million to €35 million. Another player that drops significantly is Juve’s Álvaro Morata; he drops by €10 million to €35 million—the lowest since the summer of 2016.
How Transfermarkt market values work
The Transfermarkt market values are calculated, taking into account various pricing models. A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees.
The goal is not to predict a price but an expected value of a player in a free market. Both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant in determining market values. Examples of this are listed below. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (you can find the detailed market value definition here).
