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Update Série A
Four months after the conclusion of the Brazilian Série A—and also the last market value update—Transfermarkt.br has updated the market values of 584 players ahead of the 2022 season. Despite the break in the national championship, Brazilian clubs have been busy on the field: the FIFA Club World Cup, Recopa Sudamericana, Supercopa, and State Championships were all ongoing and were part of the analysis. “Many players have developed well, grew personally; the biggest highlight of this update is Palmeiras,” Brazil Area Manager Marcos Watts said.
The team from São Paulo is one of the most dominant clubs in South America and is successful both domestically but also on the whole continent. “It is a mirror of the talent that is coming from its academy,” Watts said. “The good work in the academy is combined with investments into the infrastructure of the club and the squad in general.” One of the best examples for the TM expert is defensive midfielder Danilo. “No wonder that he was voted the third-best player of the Club World Cup behind Chelsea’s Thiago Silva and teammate Dudu.” Danilo’s market value grew by €4 million to now €22 million, the second-highest in the league.
Danilo behind Barbosa: The most valuable players in Brazil
Danilo aside, there have been other positive and negative examples at Palmeiras. “Raphael Veiga (+€2m to €12m) continued to play at a high level at the Club World Cup and the State Championship; the same is true for talent Giovani (+€4m to €10m); he is becoming ever more important for the team and has been excellent for his club,” Watts said. Two other young stars, Gabriel Menino (-€4m to €11m) and Patrick de Paula (-€2m to €14 and sold to Botafogo), have been negative examples, according to Watts. “Both have struggled with discipline issues and lost their space in the squad. Both were scrapped from the squad just days ahead of the Club World Cup.”
Market values Brazil: Downgrade for Veron – Pedro happy with being on the bench?
Gabriel Veron also dropped significantly, which is surprising for a player of his age group—the winger is only 19. “He only had limited playing time over the last year and was less important for the team than other young players, who broke into the squad after him,” Watts said. Veron’s new market value, after dropping by €3 million, is now €12 million. A big drop from his personal best €25 million, which he achieved last year.
Palmeiras aside the positive stories according to Watts were Fluminense’s Luiz Henrique (+€7m to €12m, sold to Real Betis for €12.6m), Flamengo’s João Gomes (+€4m to €9m) and Atlético Mineiro’s Guilherme Arana (+€3m to €14m). “They all played at a high level and have justified their market values—Arana is currently a candidate for Brazil’s left-back position,” Watts said.
Pablo Maia from São Paulo FC received his first-ever market value, and the 20-year-old jumped straight to an impressive €5 million. “Within three months, Maia made the jump from the academy to one of the key players in the first team,” Watts said.
In his development, former youth star Pedro at Flamengo goes in the opposite direction. “Even though he is very talented, the player seems to be happy with a bench spot at Flamengo because the team has Gabriel Barbosa in the starting XI,” Watts said about the 24-year-old whose market value dropped by €4 million to now €10 million. That is €8 million less than his highest market value just before his transfer to Fiorentina. “Other clubs have tried to sign him,” Watts said. “But Flamengo doesn’t want to sell the player, and he, in turn, doesn’t seem to be bothered much by that fact.”
How Transfermarkt market values work
The Transfermarkt market values are calculated, taking into account various pricing models. A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees.
The goal is not to predict a price but an expected value of a player in a free market. Both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant in determining market values. Examples of this are listed below. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (you can find the detailed market value definition here).
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