Why GW37–38 Changes Everything: The Chip Dilemma
We’re at the sharp end of the season, and if you’ve still got chips left, you’re facing a genuinely tough decision. With 13.1 million managers competing and only two gameweeks remaining, the window for FPL chip strategy has narrowed dramatically. Using a chip now could be the difference between a podium finish in your mini-league and watching from the sidelines—or it could be a panic move you regret for months.
I’ve been playing FPL for over a decade, and I’ve learned the hard way: the worst chip decisions come from impatience, not analysis. This week, I’m seeing managers flip between bench boost and triple captain like they’re spinning a coin. Let’s be smarter than that.
The Case for Bench Boost in GW37
Here’s the honest truth: when to use bench boost FPL depends entirely on your bench strength right now. If your five-man bench reads like a second XI of premium players, bench boost could genuinely net you 30–50 extra points. If it’s four 4.5m defenders and a 5.0m midfielder, you’re looking at maybe 10–15 points—hardly worth the chip.
The advantage of benching in GW37 is that Arsenal play Burnley (difficulty 1), and you know your squad will have some depth. However, Arsenal’s difficulty rating of 5 suggests the underlying fixtures aren’t entirely straightforward. Let me show you the fixture difficulty picture:
| Gameweek | Key Fixtures | Avg Difficulty | Bench Boost Viability |
|---|---|---|---|
| GW37 | Villa v Liverpool, Man Utd v Forest, Arsenal v Burnley | 3.3 | Moderate — mixed fixtures, some bench rotation risk |
| GW38 | Bournemouth v Man City, Chelsea v Spurs | 3.5 | Strong — balanced fixtures, minimal rotation |
My assessment? GW38 is the superior bench boost gameweek. Here’s why: in the final week, managers are either chasing points or playing for honour—there’s less tactical rotation. Pep Guardiola won’t rest Haaland with one game left. Erik ten Hag won’t bench Fernandes. And your bench in GW38 should have solidified, meaning you actually have players who’ll play.
Key insight: Bench boost in a gameweek where your subs are guaranteed 90 minutes, not a week where rotation is likely. GW38 wins this battle.
However, if you’re playing in an FPL360 mini-league where you’re trailing badly, using bench boost in GW37 might be a desperation play to claw back points. Just know what you’re doing—it’s high-risk.
Triple Captain in GW37: The Tempting Trap
Every week I see managers asking, “Should I triple captain this week?” And every week the answer is nuanced. When to use triple captain hinges on four factors: form, fixture, differential ownership, and whether you can afford to waste a chip.
Right now, the obvious candidates are Haaland (Man City, 230 points, 6.2 form) and Semenyo (Man City, 195 points, 3.8 form). Haaland is 64.5% owned—he’ll probably outscore everyone regardless. But Bournemouth v Man City in GW38 is a far juicier triple captain fixture than anything in GW37, where Man City don’t play until Tuesday the 19th.
Here’s what I’ve learned: triple captain works best when you’re chasing a deficit and have a player with a +8 expected points advantage over the field. Haaland has that edge, but so does he every week. The question is: does he have it more in GW37 than GW38? Almost certainly not.
My honest take: unless you’re in a head-to-head match where you’re down 20 points and desperate, hold your triple captain for GW38. Man City’s fixture in GW38 is softer on paper, and by then you’ll know exactly which of your rivals’ chips are already spent.
Free Hit vs Wildcard: The False Choice
I see the confusion constantly. Managers think, “Should I use free hit or wildcard?” But the answer depends entirely on whether you still have a wildcard in your pocket.
If you’ve used your wildcard already, your only option is free hit. And when to use free hit FPL is straightforward: when your current squad doesn’t fit the next two gameweeks at all. Right now, looking at the Arsenal overload in transfers (Gyökeres 189k in, Saka 124k in, Saliba 104k in), and the mass exodus from Aston Villa (Rogers 178k out, Watkins 106k out), it seems the market has already made this decision for you.
My advice: don’t free hit in GW37 unless you’re 30+ points behind and your bench is literally non-existent. You’ll destroy your flexibility for GW38, which is the actual endgame. A free hit in GW37 locks you into GW38 without a chip, which is strategically weak.
If you still have a wildcard (rare at this stage), use it only if you have three or more dead players who won’t play in either GW37 or GW38. Otherwise, accept the L and move on.
The Arsenal Trap: Why I’m Not Chasing Gyökeres
I need to be direct here: Arsenal’s transfer traffic is making me nervous. Yes, Gyökeres just came in for 189k transfers, and Saka for 124k. Yes, Arsenal play Burnley (difficulty 1) in GW38. But difficulty 1 doesn’t guarantee points—it suggests low defensive structure, which can mean chaotic, low-scoring matches.
More importantly, Arsenal’s fixture in GW37 is against Burnley, and their GW38 is completely open. The market is pricing in a 40+ point haul from their attackers over two weeks, which is optimistic. I’ve owned Saka all season—he’s a generational talent—but bringing him in now feels like buying after a 40% surge.
Instead, I’m focusing my chip strategy on players already in my squad who’ve proven their worth. Haaland (230 points, 26G 8A), Fernandes (212 points, 8G 21A), and Gabriel (202 points, 3G 5A) have earned my trust. Triple captaining one of them feels safer than pivoting to expensive incomers.
Key Takeaways: Your FPL Chip Strategy for GW37–38
- Bench Boost: Hold for GW38. The final gameweek has less rotation and more certainty. GW37 is higher risk unless your bench is genuinely elite.
- Triple Captain: Use in GW38 on Haaland, Fernandes, or a form-playing midfielder from a top-six side. GW37 has scattered fixtures and is tactically murky.
- Free Hit: Avoid unless you’re 30+ points behind in your mini-league. It kills your GW38 flexibility and the market’s already priced in most optimisations.
- Wildcard: If you still have it, use only for structural damage control—three or more unplayable assets. Otherwise, leave it alone.
- Transfer Logic: Don’t chase the 189k transfers into Gyökeres. The market has already optimised; you’re buying overpriced hype. Stick with proven performers.
Common Chip Strategy Mistakes to Avoid
I’ve made these errors myself, and they haunt me. First: using a chip to chase points instead of for structural advantage. If you’re 5 points behind in your league with two games left, bench boost won’t save you. You need differential plays with transfers, not chips.
Second: triple captaining a player in a fixture that’s difficult, not just in a team that’s in form. Haaland at 6.2 form looks tempting, but if Man City’s opponent is playing defensive, his expected points drop. Context matters.
Third: using free hit to bring in three premium incomers you can’t afford to keep. Free hit is a one-week tool; it should be about structural fixes (fixing a bench catastrophe, covering injuries), not attacking moves. If you’re doing it for attacking reasons, you should have planned ahead.
Fourth: not checking rotation risk before benching. If you bench boost in GW37 and Pep rests Doku or ten Hag benches Casemiro for tactical reasons, you’ve wasted your chip. Check team news obsessively in the final week.
I learned this the hard way in 2019 when I triple-captained Son in a 3-0 loss to Leicester. Form and fixture aren’t everything—underlying metrics matter. Use the FPL360 Fixture Difficulty tool to stress-test your chip decisions against defensive solidity, not just league position.
Gameweek 37–38 Chip Strategy Summary
Here’s my final recommendation for FPL chip strategy in these final two gameweeks:
GW37: Do not use a chip unless you’re severely behind (30+ points in a 50-team league). Instead, make two clean transfers: move out Gibbs-White and Rogers (who are hemorrhaging ownership) and upgrade to a differential play. Check the FPL360 Price Changes page before the deadline to nail the timing.
GW38: This is your endgame. If you have a bench boost left, use it. If you have triple captain, use it on Haaland. If you have a free hit, use it only if you’ve got injuries or dead players. If you still have a wildcard, something has gone wrong with your season—use it only for emergency damage control.
The psychological edge in these final weeks isn’t about chips—it’s about trusting your squad and making precision transfers. Chips amplify edges; they don’t create them. Your edge comes from owning the right players before the market catches on.
FAQ: Your Chip Strategy Questions Answered
Can you use free hit and bench boost together?
No. Free hit is a one-gameweek chip that lets you make unlimited transfers that automatically revert. Bench boost is a separate chip that plays all your bench players. You can only activate one chip per gameweek. If you use free hit in GW37, you cannot use bench boost in GW37. You’ll have to save bench boost for GW38.
When is the best time to wildcard?
If you haven’t used it yet, this late in the season (GW37) you should only wildcard if you have three or more players who won’t play in either remaining gameweek due to injuries, suspensions, or international duties. Otherwise, a wildcard is wasted flexibility. The best time to wildcard in a normal season is around GW19–21, when fixture swings are most dramatic. At GW37, you’re too close to the end for it to matter strategically.
Should I triple captain Haaland this week (GW37)?
Probably not. While Haaland is 64.5% owned with elite form (6.2) and a proven scoring record (26G 8A), Man City don’t play until Tuesday GW38. GW38 (Bournemouth v Man City) is a softer fixture and comes after you’ll know what your rivals have done. Hold your triple captain for GW38 unless you’re in a head-to-head knockout and desperately need a differential edge this gameweek.
For more strategic depth, check your mini-league standings on the FPL360 Dashboard and use the Captain Impact tool to model what a triple captain actually nets you relative to your rivals’ likely picks.
