The price ticker moves relentlessly in FPL, and Gameweek 33 is no exception. Today’s FPL price changes have already started reshaping team values, with some familiar faces dropping whilst unexpected stars climb. If you’ve been building your squad without tracking the transfer trends, you’re about to learn why price movements matter far more than most casual managers realise.
Today’s FPL Price Changes: The Full Breakdown
Let’s start with what actually changed this morning. Arsenal’s defensive duo took hits: both J.Timber and Rice dropped £0.1m, whilst Zubimendi followed them down the same amount. Over at Aston Villa, Burrowes and Abraham both fell £0.1m, suggesting managers are trimming their squad options from these clubs.
The standout mover today was Senesi from Bournemouth, who climbed £0.1m to £5.2m. That doesn’t sound like much until you realise it follows 141k transfers in this week alone — he’s the third most-bought player heading into Saturday’s deadline. Brighton’s Van Hecke also ticked up to £4.6m, and Welbeck rose to £6.3m, both suggesting defensive confidence in the south coast. Evanilson from Bournemouth fell £0.1m despite being part of a transfer-heavy week, which tells you something about the direction of money flow.
These aren’t massive swings, but in FPL they represent the pattern of the smart money moving. Check your Price Changes page for the complete hourly breakdown — understanding when players shift helps you time your transfers perfectly.
Who’s Predicted to Rise Next?
This is where FPL price rise predictions become genuinely valuable. Let me be clear: I’m not claiming to have a crystal ball. But transfer data tells a story, and the story right now is unmistakable.
Haaland is predictably top of the transfer-in charts with 178k buys, but he’s at 59.5% ownership already. His price is stable at £14.4m because demand is saturated. That’s not your edge. Your edge comes from spotting the mid-tier buys that haven’t yet spiked in price.
Here are my top 5 predicted risers before the GW33 deadline:
1. Cherki (Man City) — £6.3m, 171k transfers in
Second-highest buy volume this week. He’s a midfielder at a bargain price with 171k incoming transfers and hasn’t risen yet. Man City’s fixture run is decent, and Guardiola’s rotation means opportunities for him to step up. I’d expect him to rise £0.1m within 48 hours, possibly twice.
2. Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) — £5.6m, 134k transfers in
Leeds play Wolves (difficulty 1) on Saturday, one of the easiest fixtures in the gameweek. 134k transfers in suggest smart money knows something. He’s priced as a bargain striker and that buying pressure should push him up soon.
3. O’Reilly (Man City) — £5.0m, 121k transfers in
A defender at £5.0m with 121k transfers flooding in. Man City’s defensive depth is being tapped, and this suggests managers are loading up for their run-in. He’ll likely rise £0.1m tonight or tomorrow.
4. Scott (Bournemouth) — £5.0m, 118k transfers in
Bournemouth are trending hard right now. Senesi already rose, and Scott sits at a round £5.0m with substantial transfer demand. Expect him to move within 48 hours as the wave continues.
5. Guéhi (Man City) — £5.1m, 131k transfers in
Already climbing (just rose today), but he’s third on the buy list. Man City’s defence is being loaded by 13.1 million managers. He could easily rise another £0.1m before the deadline, potentially £0.2m total across the week.
All five of these players sit between £5.0m and £6.3m — they’re the sweet spot where small price movements add up fast and create profit opportunities for next gameweek’s transfers.
Players Predicted to Fall
Now let’s talk about which FPL players will fall in price. The transfer-out data reveals some genuine surprises, and understanding who’s being dumped helps you avoid traps.
Ekitiké (Liverpool) — 481k transfers out
This is the damning story. 481k managers selling someone at £9.2m? That’s not a small correction; that’s a stampede for the exit. Liverpool’s form is evidently concerning enough that even premium-priced attacking assets are being jettisoned. He’ll fall multiple times this week, potentially £0.3-0.4m total.
J.Timber (Arsenal) — 206k transfers out
Already down £0.1m today to £6.2m. 206k sells suggest Arsenal’s defensive appeal is fading, or managers are simply consolidating funds. Another £0.1-0.2m fall likely before GW34.
Rice (Arsenal) — 105k transfers out
Also dropped today (£7.2m) despite being a midfielder at a decent price. 105k sales is significant. He’s not falling as sharply as Ekitiké, but expect another £0.1m before the deadline.
Wilson (Fulham) — 95k transfers out
Interesting. 154 points earned and still 95k sales? Managers are clearly reshuffling rather than seeing him as a problem. Likely a small drop of £0.1m, but it’s worth monitoring if you’re holding.
Mbeumo (Man Utd) — 125k transfers out
At £8.5m with 125k departures, this smells like template shedding. Expect £0.1m fall minimum, possibly £0.2m if selling pressure continues.
Use our Price Changes page to track these movements in real time. Price predictions shift hourly based on actual transfer data.
How FPL Price Changes Work
If you’re new to tracking FPL price changes today, here’s the mechanics: prices adjust based on buy-to-sell ratios across a rolling 24-hour period. Broadly, FPL operates on specific rules that determine when a player’s value shifts.
A player rises when their net transfer balance (buys minus sells) hits a threshold — roughly every 50k net transfers in at top clubs, fewer at smaller ones. They fall when the opposite happens. The game updates prices at 10:00 (this morning), then again at 22:00 tonight and 10:00 tomorrow. That’s three windows before the GW33 deadline on Saturday 10:00.
The tactical angle: if a player is about to rise and you want him, buy before the price jump. If someone’s falling and you own him, you have three options: hold and take the loss, sell before the next drop, or hold if you believe in him. Most elite managers in my mini-league watch these shifts obsessively because a well-timed transfer can swing a gameweek by £0.2-0.3m per player — compound that across 11 players and you’re talking real money in terms of future spending power.
Transfer Strategy: Beating the Price Changes
Here’s where most managers get it wrong. They react to FPL price changes frantically, buying in panic or selling in fear. Smart strategy is the opposite.
Rule 1: Buy before rises, not after. If you’ve identified a player as good value (high points, cheap price, rising transfer demand), buy them *before* the price jump. Once they’ve risen £0.1m, the opportunity is gone. That means acting on transfer data, not gut feelings.
Right now, that points to Cherki, Calvert-Lewin, O’Reilly, Scott, and Guéhi. If you want any of them, move today. By tomorrow they could be £0.1m higher, which sounds trivial until you’re comparing your bank balance to your mate’s at the end of the season.
Rule 2: Sell before falls, unless you truly believe. Ekitiké’s 481k sells aren’t noise — they’re information. If you own him and aren’t convinced he turns it around, sell. If you own him and think Liverpool’s form will reverse, hold through the fall. But don’t sit in the middle ground.
Rule 3: Use price movements to fund your template. Most of us have limited funds. When defenders like Senesi and Guéhi rise but Ekitiké and Timber fall, you’re witnessing the market revalue the season’s remaining fixtures. That revaluation is your funding mechanism. Sell the falling assets, buy the rising ones, and often you’ll *make* money on the moves rather than spend it.
Track the FPL360 Dashboard to see where your mini-league rivals are moving. If everyone’s loading Guéhi and selling Timber, you have two choices: follow the crowd or find an edge elsewhere. My preference? Find the edge. That’s why I’m watching Calvert-Lewin (easy fixture, cheap price, surging demand) rather than blindly chasing Haaland at 59.5% ownership.
The GW33 Fixture Context
Price movements don’t exist in isolation — they’re informed by the fixture list ahead. Gameweek 33 is stacked with difficulty 3 games: Brentford vs Fulham, Chelsea vs Man Utd, Newcastle vs Bournemouth, and six others. The exceptions are Wolves (difficulty 1) and Burnley (difficulty 1).
This explains why Leeds and Bournemouth players are rising. Leeds get Wolves — an easy touch. Bournemouth are just easy all-round. The price rises reflect forward-looking fixture sense, not just recent form.
Check our Fixture Difficulty tool to see which teams have the best runs heading forward. That’s where your next transfer priorities should come from. Gameweek 34, 35, and 36 matter as much as this one, and the market is already pricing in the difficulty ahead.
Should You Panic About Price Drops?
A quick word of caution: if you own J.Timber, Rice, or Wilson and they drop £0.1-0.2m before the deadline, don’t panic-sell. Arsenal still has Arsenal fixtures, Wilson still scores goals. Price changes are feedback, not prophecy.
Where I *would* be concerned is Ekitiké. 481k sells is not a small blip — that’s managers actively repositioning away from Liverpool’s attack. If you own him, ask yourself: do I believe Liverpool will suddenly turn it on? Or am I just hoping? If it’s the latter, sell and redeploy the funds into Calvert-Lewin or Senesi where the transfer momentum is positive.
Use our Stats page to compare expected assists, key passes, and underlying metrics before making panic decisions. Price movements tell you what the crowd thinks; stats tell you what’s actually happening on the pitch.
Timing Your Transfers Around Price Changes
The deadline is Saturday 10:00. You have three price-update windows to work with: today at 10:00 (done), tonight at 22:00, and tomorrow morning at 10:00. If you’re planning major changes, here’s the timing strategy:
Today (now): Make transfers if you want to lock in current prices before the 22:00 rise window. This is the window I’d use if I’m buying Cherki or O’Reilly — get them now before they jump.
Tonight (22:00 update): The market’s had 12 hours to process the week. Price movements crystallise. This is when heavy risers and fallers will show. If Cherki has already risen, you’ve missed him. If Ekitiké is still dropping, this might be your last chance to sell.
Tomorrow (10:00 update): Final price movements before the deadline. This is the “last chance” window. If you haven’t made a move and you’re still holding a falling player, this is your last update before you’re locked in for GW33.
Most elite managers I know make their moves within 6 hours of reading the transfer data. Don’t overthink it. If the data says buy, buy. If it says sell, sell. Check back at 22:00 and 10:00 to adjust, but the initial decision should be quick.
The Role of Your Mini-League
If you’re in a mini-league (and if you’re reading FPL360, you almost certainly are), price changes become mini-league weapons. Everyone in your league sees the same transfer data. But not everyone acts on it with the same speed or conviction.
When Guéhi rises £0.1m and your rival doesn’t have him, you gain a competitive advantage. When Ekitiké falls and your rival holds him hoping for recovery, you gain another. These aren’t massive swings individually, but across a gameweek they compound.
Check your Live Table to see how rivals are moving. If everyone’s transferring in the same players, you’re following the template. If you’re spotting rises before they happen, you’re ahead of the curve. The transfer data gives you both signals — use them.
Final Word: Trust the Data, Not the Hype
I’ve been playing FPL for over a decade, and the single best predictor of price movement is always transfer volume. Not pundit opinion, not form charts, not social media chatter — actual buy and sell numbers. Cherki’s 171k transfers in isn’t a coincidence; it’s 171k managers seeing value. Ekitiké’s 481k sells isn’t panic; it’s 481k managers repositioning.
Your job is simple: spot the gaps between market reality and player value, then exploit them. Right now, that means buying cheap risers like Calvert-Lewin and selling expensive fallers like Ekitiké. Do that consistently across the season, and you’ll finish ahead of your mate who relies on instinct.
Monitor the Price Changes page tonight and tomorrow morning. The deadline is Saturday 10:00. Three windows to move, so don’t leave it to the last minute. Make your calls now, review at 22:00, and lock in by tomorrow morning. That’s how you beat the market.
FAQs: FPL Price Changes Explained
When do FPL prices change?
FPL updates player prices three times daily: at 10:00 (morning), 22:00 (evening), and then 10:00 the following morning. Prices can rise or fall at each window based on the rolling 24-hour buy-to-sell ratio. This week, prices update today, tonight, and tomorrow before the GW33 deadline on Saturday at 10:00.
How do FPL price changes work?
Player prices adjust based on net transfer demand (total buys minus total sells) over a 24-hour rolling period. When a player’s net transfers in reach a threshold (roughly 50k for top-six clubs, fewer for others), their price rises by £0.1m. When net transfers out exceed the threshold, they fall by £0.1m. The system is automatic and updates three times daily.
How much do FPL prices change by?
Each price change is exactly £0.1m, either up or down. A player cannot rise or fall by more than £0.1m per update window. However, a player can rise multiple times in a single day (or week) if demand remains consistently high. For example, Guéhi could theoretically rise £0.3m across the three daily updates if he continues accumulating net transfers in.
