The transfer madness around Gameweek 33 is in full swing, and FPL price changes today have already started reshaping squads across 13.1 million managers. With the deadline just over 24 hours away, understanding which players are about to rise or fall could be the difference between hitting a chip perfectly or getting priced out entirely.
FPL Price Changes Today — What Dropped
Three players took hits on the price front this morning: J.Timber (Arsenal) fell to £6.2m (-0.1), Zubimendi (Arsenal) dropped to £5.0m (-0.1), and Palmer (Chelsea) is now £10.5m (-0.1). That’s not a coincidence — Timber and Palmer are among the most transferred out players this week (128k and ongoing for Timber), whilst Zubimendi appears to be a casualty of broader Arsenal defensive reshuffling.
Burrowes (Aston Villa) also dropped -0.1 to £4.3m, and there’s a handful of other casualties including Evanilson (Bournemouth, -0.1), Raúl (Fulham, -0.1), Kevin (Fulham, -0.1), and João Pedro (Chelsea, -0.1 to £7.7m). When you see this many price falls in one batch, it tells you the transfer market is consolidating around a few clear themes — and they’re not Arsenal defensive investments.
Who Gained Ground — Senesi’s Quiet Rise
Only one player rose today: Senesi (Bournemouth) ticked up to £5.2m (+0.1). That’s tiny on the surface, but it’s a signal. Senesi is sat 4th in the most-transferred-in list this week with 83k buys, and he’s about to face Leeds and Burnley in GW34 and GW35 — two of the softest fixtures in the league. Smart managers are already positioning, and the price rises will follow.
FPL Price Rise Predictions — Top 5 to Watch Tonight
Based on transfer activity and fixture positioning, here’s my list of players most likely to rise in the next price update:
1. Haaland (Man City, £14.4m)
101k transfers in this week — by far the largest inflow. Yes, he’s already £14.4m, but that won’t stop the rises. Man City face Arsenal in a massive GW33 clash, and after that comes Brighton and Burnley. Haaland will rise tonight, probably to £14.5m. The man’s on a free run to the end of the season.
2. O’Reilly (Man City, £5.0m)
97k transfers in — second highest. O’Reilly is a bargain defender at a title-chasing club, and there’s still room for price growth before he locks in as a season-long hold. Expect a rise to £5.1m.
3. Cherki (Man City, £6.3m)
86k transfers in, and he’s been on fire form-wise. Cherki provides midfield depth at the champions’ most potent attacking club. A rise to £6.4m is almost certain.
4. Scott (Bournemouth, £5.0m)
67k transfers in. Bournemouth have that brilliant GW34–35 run (Leeds, Burnley), and Scott is the go-to budget defender pick. Given how many managers are loading Bournemouth for the soft run, Scott’s rise is locked in. £5.1m incoming.
5. Semenyo (Man City, £8.2m)
62k transfers in despite already being the 4th-ranked player by points (176pts). The form is undeniable (2.0 this week), and with 56.4% ownership, he’s one of the most backed assets in the game. Another rise, probably to £8.3m or £8.4m given the sheer volume.
How FPL Price Changes Work
If you’re new to tracking FPL price changes, the system is straightforward but unforgiving. Prices move on a net transfer basis: when a player hits a threshold of net transfers in or out, they rise or fall by £0.1m. The exact threshold is secret, but FPL data suggests it’s roughly 50–100k net transfers depending on player price and season stage.
Transfers are tracked from midnight to midnight (UK time), and price updates typically happen at 10:00 GMT each morning. That means any captain decision or transfer you make after the 10:00 deadline doesn’t affect that day’s pricing — the window for movement is the 24 hours before. This is crucial: if you’re trying to buy a player before they rise, you need to move before midnight, not after the morning update.
Price falls happen the same way in reverse. When a player drops out of teams en masse (like Timber this week with 128k transfers out), they lose value. The falls typically happen first — defenders dropping from 6.2 to 6.1 before mid-tier forwards rise from 7.3 to 7.4.
Transfer Strategy to Beat the Rises
Here’s where I’ll be honest: most casual managers get price timing wrong. They see Haaland rising and panic-buy at 14.5 instead of 14.4, losing 0.1 on nothing. Or they hold Timber too long and sell him at 6.1 after he’s already dropped to 6.0.
The winning strategy is brutal simplicity:
1. Make transfers before midnight, not after. If you’re shipping out Timber, do it today before he potentially falls further. If you’re bringing in Scott or O’Reilly for the Bournemouth run, buy before they rise tonight. Check our Price Changes page for live tracking of who’s moving right now.
2. Ride price rises, don’t chase them. If O’Reilly goes to £5.1 overnight, don’t buy at £5.1 unless he’s genuinely essential. The 0.1 difference compounds over a season — in a 38-game league, chasing price rises costs you transfers. Instead, buy undervalued players early and hold them. Guéhi (Man City, £5.1m) is a perfect example: he’s ranked 10th by points with form of 15.0, but he’s 5.1 because he only recently nailed down a spot. He’ll keep rising.
3. Target soft-fixture runs early. Bournemouth’s GW34–35 run (Leeds and Burnley) is gold. Scott, Senesi, and key outfield assets like Evanilson will all rise in the next 48 hours. If you’re not in them by tonight, you’re paying a premium. Use our Fixture Difficulty tool to map the next 6–8 gameweeks and front-load transfers into emerging soft runs.
4. Avoid mass transfers on deadline day. The data shows Ekitiké (191k out), J.Timber (128k out), and Chalobah (81k out) are the panic sells. Don’t be part of that. Sell early in the week when prices are settling, not on Saturday morning when everyone wakes up and realizes they’ve got a bad team.
Which Players Will Fall Tonight
Beyond the drops we’ve already seen, I’m watching for further falls among: J.Timber (likely another -0.1 to £6.1 given the 128k outflow), Wilson (Fulham, 53k out — may drop from £6.1 to £6.0), Thiago (Brentford, 47k out despite 166pts — unusual, but form is 7.7 so some are rotating him out ahead of rotations). Rice (Arsenal, 60k out) might hold at £7.3, but if Arsenal underperform GW33, that could shift.
The biggest watch is Chalobah (Chelsea, 81k out). He’s been a budget defender stalwart but appears to be falling out of favour. If he drops to £5.3 tonight, he could become a bargain snag for mini-league managers chasing value before the Chelsea–Man Utd fixture.
Timing Your Wildcard or Chip
If you’re holding a free transfer or wildcard for GW34+, don’t blow it now. The Bournemouth rotation into Leeds (GW34) and Burnley (GW35) is where the mega-points lie. Spend today shipping out deadwood like Timber and the mass-out Palmer, grab one or two rising assets like O’Reilly or Scott before they hit 5.1, then use your wildcard in GW34 when you can load the entire team into soft fixtures.
Use our FPL360 Dashboard to track your rank and see which players in your mini-league are moving. If your mates are piling into Haaland and Man City, the copying advantage is gone — focus on contrarian value instead (Wilson, Bowen at 10% owned, Casemiro at 3.2%).
FAQs on FPL Price Changes
When do FPL prices change?
Prices update every day at 10:00 GMT, based on transfers made between midnight and midnight. The Gameweek 33 deadline is Saturday 18 April at 10:00, so any transfers you make by Friday midnight will influence Saturday’s morning price update — but changes made Saturday morning after 10:00 won’t affect prices until Sunday morning.
How do FPL price changes work?
FPL uses a net transfer system. When enough managers buy a player (typically 50–100k net buys depending on price and season stage), the player rises by £0.1m. When enough sell, they fall by £0.1m. The exact threshold is secret but consistent. Prices move once daily at 10:00 GMT, and the direction is determined by the cumulative transfers from the previous 24 hours.
How much do FPL prices change by?
Each price change is always £0.1m — either up or down. A player cannot jump from £5.0 to £5.2 in one update; it’s incremental. However, a popular player can rise for multiple consecutive days (Haaland, Semenyo) or fall for several days (Timber, Palmer), compounding the effect. Over a season, tracking price changes carefully can be worth 0.5–1.0 points per transfer decision.
Get ahead of tonight’s price changes by reviewing the Price Changes page for real-time transfer tracking, and use our Captain Impact tool to plan your GW33 armband — because if you’re shifting your squad around price moves, you might as well captain the right pick alongside it.
The deadline is Saturday 10:00. Make your moves now, not on Saturday morning, and you’ll steal a march on the millions.
