Our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight for the weekend’s Premier League games and predicts a title-race swing with Liverpool slipping up at home to Wolves.
Liverpool vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Is the Liverpool wobble coming?
There are a few niggling doubts starting to creep in. Arne Slot’s men created just 0.4 worth of expected goals (xG) from open play in the defeat at Plymouth and then a total of just 0.65 total expected goals at Everton – that was their lowest xG return in any game in all competitions under Slot.
Despite Liverpool’s ridiculous record at Anfield, a pro-Wolves play at the prices is advised based on their improved defensive metrics under Vitor Pereira, who has made a brilliant short-term impact.
Under Gary O’Neil they conceded 2.5 goals per game, but that is down to 1.5 goals per game, whilst their shots-faced data is down from 14.6 to 12.4 per game. They were excellent against Aston Villa, restricting them to just 0.57 worth of expected goals in a convincing 2-0 win.
These types of defensive improvements have not been factored into the market enough here, with Wolves to avoid defeat on the double chance at 4/1 with Sky Bet just too big to pass up.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Ruben Amorim needs a performance where it is clear to see some evidence of his philosophy being put into action. All I am seeing is a miserly team that grind out results and struggles to create any momentum in games.
United have scored just 28 goals in 24 Premier League matches this season to a per-90 average of 1.17 – only Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton average fewer.
Therefore, it remains a smart betting play to keep on backing United’s inability to start games with any intent under Amorim. The only first-half goal they have scored in their last 15 games in all competitions was Bruno Fernandes’ penalty in the defeat to Brighton, and after failing to lead at the break against Leicester it is now 17 matches since this team led after 45 minutes.
Tottenham head into this one with their own problems but the 15/8 with Sky Bet for them to be winning at half-time has a chance.
