2025 Stats: .273/.360/.462, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 51 BB, .821 OPS, 3.5 WAR

Contract Prediction: Five years, $135 million

Alex Bregman was a free agent a year ago, coming off of a Gold Glove season in what turned out to be his final season with the Astros. However, he had posted a more modest .768 OPS in 2024 and had a qualifying offer attached to him, so things didn’t pan out how he hoped in free agency.

Bregman passed on the chance to sign a six-year, $171.5 million deal with the Tigers last offseason, per The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey. He wound up getting a three-year, $120 million contract with the Red Sox, one that included opt-outs after both 2025 and 2026. A right quad strain did limit him to 114 games in 2025, but he nonetheless performed so well when healthy that it was a no-brainer for him to opt out and return to the open market.

You might be inclined to think that Bregman has massively benefitted from the Crawford Boxes at Daikin Park in Houston and the Green Monster at Fenway Park in Boston, but his career splits don’t paint a picture of someone who would see a dip in production if he played his home games elsewhere:

Home (2,587 plate appearances): .268/.367/.471, 100 HR, 359 RBI, .838 OPS

Away (2,740 plate appearances): .276/.363/.490, 109 HR, 366 RBI, .852 OPS

In his first—and potentially only—season with the Red Sox, Bregman hit .246 with a .761 OPS at Fenway Park, as opposed to .296 with an .875 OPS on the road.

There are other things to like about Bregman. While he’s probably past the point of his career where shortstop is a realistic option, he’s a strong third baseman that could also shift over to second base if need be. Plus, despite his association with the 2017 Astros, he’s built a reputation as one of the most respected clubhouse leaders in the sport. It doesn’t hurt that since 2017, Bregman has played in the World Series three times, including winning a title with the Astros in 2022.

What are the areas of concern? Bregman is entering his age-32 season, and on top of a decade’s worth of regular season games, he’s also appeared in over 100 playoff contests. Was his quad injury just a one-off thing, or is it the beginning of the incredible workload he’s taken on catching up to him?

The thought here is there will be serious interest from multiple teams on Bregman, although he’s going to struggle to struggle to get six or seven years. Perhaps he’ll get five, but one of the other issues facing him is he might be Plan B for a few possible suitors. The Red Sox seem more likely to prioritize a power hitter for the middle of their order. The Phillies could be players for Bregman if Kyle Schwarber leaves, but probably not otherwise.

We’re going to project Bregman’s first MLB manager, A.J. Hinch, and the Tigers circle back after pursuing him last winter. With a $27 million average annual value, he would comfortably top the $25.17 AAV Matt Chapman got in his new deal last offseason. Five years is the bet, although it could be four.