Our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight as he predicts a title-race swing with Liverpool slipping up at home to Wolves.
Brighton vs Chelsea, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Perhaps the chants of “we’ve got our Chelsea back” in December from the fanbase were a little bit premature based on the last 10 games. Chelsea have won just three of those and Enzo Maresca has been proven right in that this Chelsea team are not up to winning a Premier League yet.
Maresca’s style is becoming a bit predicable and reminds me of Maurizio Sarri’s approach, which focused on dominating possession and hoping that Eden Hazard could make something happen. It is the same now with Cole Palmer, who is a marked man. Palmer is off form, though, so Chelsea are off form.
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Since mid-December, Palmer has contributed a goal involvement once every 268 minutes. That is in stark contrast to the start to the season, when he scored or assisted once every 76 minutes in his first 15 appearances.
Friday 14th February 7:00pm
Kick off 8:00pm
Premier League HD”/>
Premier League HD”/>With their maverick struggling for confidence and Nicolas Jackson, who has his flaws but leads the line with great authority, also missing until April, it is hard to understand why Chelsea are as short as 5/4 with Sky Bet for the win.
Brighton on the draw no bet at 11/10 looks a sound investment.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Leicester vs Arsenal, Saturday 12.30pm
Losing Kai Havertz for the season is wholly irresponsible from Arsenal – but how much will their results be affected?
There has been a huge amount of noise, negativity and anger regarding the injury, but the with and without stats paint a positive picture. In games across all competitions without Havertz, Arsenal have lost just once in 17 matches, with a win ratio of 77 per cent.
With him, that ratio drops to 62 per cent.
I would be more concerned if one of William Saliba or Gabriel suffered this hamstring tear for a team that is built around defensive stability. Arsenal to win to nil at 11/10 with Sky Bet can provide the answer here and put some pressure onto Liverpool.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Aston Villa vs Ipswich, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There is a simple theory to apply when approaching Aston Villa games in the Premier League – back them when they’ve had six or more days’ rest and fade them when they have not.
Since the start of last season, Unai Emery’s side have played 16 games with six days’ or more rest behind them and their record is so strong, winning 12, drawing three and losing just once.
They are a borderline top-four team when well-rested and as Ipswich continue to disappoint me, especially defensively, Villa should have a comfortable afternoon.
Finding a way to boost their 2/5 win price with Sky Bet looks a shrewd way of adding value and you can do that by backing Morgan Rogers to score in a Villa win, which gets us to 5/2.
The powerhouse attacker has added goals to his game of late, scoring eight in his last eight games, including a hat-trick against Celtic in the Champions League. He scored at Portman Road in the reverse fixture, too, and has plenty going for him when assessing his odds here.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Villa to win and Morgan Rogers to score (5/2 with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
You could play this game 99 times and Fulham would win 33, Nottingham Forest would win 33 and the other 33 would be drawn. It is a devilishly difficult game to predict.
The outright betting might be a tricky puzzle to solve but there is hope for punters in the shots-on-target market, where Anthony Elanga looks a knocking bet.
The flying winger has been central to the way Forest are constructing their attacks as he is linking excellently with Morgan Gibbs-White. It has led to Elanga having a shot on target in seven of his last eight starts and him registering nine in total. On those numbers, the 11/10 with Sky Bet for him to record another does look juicy.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Anthony Elanga +1 shots on target (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Newcastle, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Newcastle’s record this season against teams that qualified for Europe last season and high-flying Nottingham Forest is so strong. They have lost just one of those 13 matches – and that was against Chelsea where they were edged out in a very tight game 2-1.
In those 13 matches they have averaged 1.92 goals per game, scoring two or more in nine of those. It is a really impressive return.
Eddie Howe has a team that revel playing the underdog, where they can sit a little deeper then pounce on the counter attack with Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon and Jacob Murphy. Dangerous teams in transition are always going to flourish against this Manchester City.
Alexander Isak is 9/2 to score in a Newcastle win
A common theme developing is Isak’s goal-scoring ability against elite teams. In 12 games against the elite, he has found the net in 10 of them. This world-class operator has the game to bamboozle City’s backline. He rates as a cracking bet to score in a Newcastle away win at 9/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Newcastle to win and Alexander Isak to score (9/2 with Sky Bet)
Southampton vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm
Since Ivan Juric took the Southampton job, they have become tougher to play against. That is seen through their fouls-committed data, where they have averaged 13.88 fouls per 90 in his eight matches in charge.
They still lack significant quality but at least they are now making life difficult for the opposition by disturbing their rhythm and relishing the scrappy nature of Juric’s style.
Jan Bednarek has been responsible for 20 of those fouls, with his per-game average at 2.05 fouls per game. With Bournemouth expected to engage in a high-intensity game, Bednarek’s price of 5/4 with Sky Bet to make two or more fouls stands out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
West Ham vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
Graham Potter has had Thomas Frank’s measure based on their previous meetings. Potter-ball seems to trump Frank-ball. He has won five of the six meetings between the pair – the only blip coming when he was manager of Chelsea and Brentford managed to scrap for a 0-0 draw.
Signs are positive for West Ham based on Potter implementing his philosophies on his squad – they deserved more than the point they picked up against Aston Villa and Chelsea based on the chances they created from their 28 shots on goal. The 11/8 with Sky Bet on a home win has potential.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Crystal Palace vs Everton, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Lots of people are sleeping on just how progressive Crystal Palace have been under Oliver Glasner. If they pick up maximum points here, it would be their best points total after 25 games in Premier League history.
It is about time they recorded some consistent wins over Everton – their head-to-head record against them is horrendous. Palace have won just once in the last 20 Premier League meetings going back to 2015.
This looks an open goal for them if they turn up based on who Everton have missing in forward areas, with Abdoulaye Doucoure, Iliman Ndiaye, Dwight McNeil, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Orel Mangala all unavailable for this trip to south London – all five would start this game in an ideal world.
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Premier League highlights.” srcset=”https://e0.365dm.com/25/02/768×432/skysports-man-utd-palace_6817644.png?20250202160304 600w,https://e0.365dm.com/25/02/1600×900/skysports-man-utd-palace_6817644.png?20250202160304″ aria-hidden=”true” class=”sdc-site-video__poster-img”/>
Highlights from the Premier League clash between Manchester United and Crystal Palace
Palace to win and under 4.5 goals in the match rates as a decent wager at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Liverpool vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Is the Liverpool wobble coming?
There are a few niggling doubts starting to creep in. Arne Slot’s men created just 0.4 worth of expected goals (xG) from open play in the defeat at Plymouth and then a total of just 0.65 total expected goals at Everton – that was their lowest xG return in any game in all competitions under Slot.
Despite Liverpool’s ridiculous record at Anfield, a pro-Wolves play at the prices is advised based on their improved defensive metrics under Vitor Pereira, who has made a brilliant short-term impact.
Under Gary O’Neil they conceded 2.5 goals per game, but that is down to 1.5 goals per game, whilst their shots-faced data is down from 14.6 to 12.4 per game. They were excellent against Aston Villa, restricting them to just 0.57 worth of expected goals in a convincing 2-0 win.
These types of defensive improvements have not been factored into the market enough here, with Wolves to avoid defeat on the double chance at 4/1 with Sky Bet just too big to pass up.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Ruben Amorim needs a performance where it is clear to see some evidence of his philosophy being put into action. All I am seeing is a miserly team that grind out results and struggles to create any momentum in games.
United have scored just 28 goals in 24 Premier League matches this season to a per-90 average of 1.17 – only Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton average fewer.
Therefore, it remains a smart betting play to keep on backing United’s inability to start games with any intent under Amorim. The only first-half goal they have scored in their last 15 games in all competitions was Bruno Fernandes’ penalty in the defeat to Brighton, and after failing to lead at the break against Leicester it is now 17 matches since this team led after 45 minutes.
Tottenham head into this one with their own problems but the 15/8 with Sky Bet for them to be winning at half-time has a chance.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Sunday 16th February 4:00pm
Kick off 4:30pm
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Premier League”/>Jones Knows’ best bets…
- 1pt on Alexander Isak to score and Newcastle to win (9/2 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Morgan Rogers to score and Aston Villa to win (5/2 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt treble on: Isak to score, Rogers to score and Anthony Elanga +1 shot on target (12/1 with Sky Bet)
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