Wolves vs. Leicester City (Feb. 7)

5 Min Read

Wolves vs. Leicester City Odds

Wolves Odds+255
Leicester City Odds+112
Over/Under2.5 (+120/-148)
Day | TimeSunday | 9 a.m. ET
Odds updated as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today.

Leicester looks to remain inside the top four on Sunday when it battles 14th-place Wolves.

Wolves ended their terrible run of form on Tuesday, defeating Arsenal at home, 2-1. Before that match, Wolves had earned only three points from their previous eight matches.

They are really missing their No. 1 striker, Raul Jimenez, who is on the sidelines for an extended period of time. However, will Tuesday’s victory be just the thing to get them back on track?

Leicester has been maintaining its third-place spot in the table for some time now despite Jamie Vardy missing the last two games.

The Foxes walked away with a 2-0 victory against Fulham on Wednesday, which now puts them only five points behind Manchester City for the top spot in the table.

Vardy is set to return to action on Saturday, but will his squad be able to escape the Molineux Stadium with all three points?


Ever since Wolves lost Jimenez to injury, they have desperately struggled to create chances in front of the net.

Over their last 12 contests without him in the lineup, Wolves have created only 1.00 xG per match.

However, it’s not all bad news. They’ve been defending really well over those contests allowing only 1.29 xG per match. 

Wolves have been performing much better at home this season than on the road. On home soil, Wolves own a +0.29 xGD compared to a -6.67 xGD mark in away fixtures.

So, they should have a better shot at getting a result over Leicester at the Molineux Stadium than they did in their 1-0 defeat at the King Power Stadium earlier in the year. 

Wolves have also been going through an identity crisis, as they haven’t found a consistent formation to play out of. In their last match against Arsenal, they went with a 4-2-3-1, which has been the most successful for them this season, as they have +2.59 xGD when playing out of that formation.

I’d expect Nuno Santos to go with that formation again on Sunday to give his side the best chance of winning.

Leicester City

Leicester City has been a big beneficiary of “penalty luck” this season.

The Foxes have been awarded a total of nine kicks from the spot, which is the most in the entire Premier League.

So, with all of that luck, the Foxes’ numbers are a tad inflated. They’re creating only 1.08 xG per match from open play this season, which is extremely low for a team sitting inside the top four. 

The Foxes are also too reliant on Jamie Vardy for all of their scoring.

The 33-year-old has been involved in 44% of their goals this season and is averaging a ridiculous 0.78 xG per 90 minutes.

Outside of Vardy, though, the Foxes don’t have a lot of scoring threats. So, if Wolves can shut him down, they’ll have a solid opportunity to get at least a point on Sunday.

Betting Analysis & Picks

I think this is going to be a tight affair given Wolves’ defensive style of play. I also think Leicester is overvalued in this spot since its ability to create chances from open play is a bit suspect this season.

Therefore, I am going to back the home side to get at least a point from this match at -134 odds.

Pick: Wolves +0.5 (-134)

Source link

Share this Article
Leave a comment