Fulham vs. West Ham United Odds
|West Ham United Odds||+104|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+108 / -134)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
West Ham looks to ascend into the top four on Saturday when they face off against Fulham in a London Derby.
Fulham is in the relegation zone and desperate for points. Their 2-0 loss at home to Leicester on Wednesday now has the Cottagers eight points from safety. They haven’t won a Premier League match in over two months, so Scott Parker’s side is definitely feeling the pressure.
West Ham has been on fire as of last, winning five of their last six matches, including a 3-1 win at Aston Villa on Wednesday. The win pushes the Hammers to within two points of Liverpool for the top four. With the Reds facing off against Manchester City on Sunday, this is a perfect opportunity for David Moyes’ men to move into fourth place.
The Cottagers have really struggled to create high-quality chances over their 11-match winless streak. Fulham is averaging only 0.90 xGF over that stretch and have scored only four goals in their last seven matches.
One big problem for Fulham is that they’re not creating many chances close to the net: They have only managed eight shots inside the six-yard box. On the flip side, they’ve allowed 28 shots inside the six-yard box to their opponents — which is the most in the Premier League.
However, Fulham’s biggest problem is that they allow way too many high-quality chances. The Cottagers have allowed a ridiculous 1.99 xG over their previous six matches. Fulham is also struggling to keep the top teams in the Premier League in check: They have allowed 1.97 xG against the top-six teams in the table.
Fulham really struggled defending West Ham in the first meeting, allowing 1.56 xG and three chances inside the six-yard box. They’ll need to defend much better if they are going to get a result on Saturday.
This match is now perhaps the most important in over two decades for the Hammers. A chance to get into the top four is something they never would have dreamed this late in the season.
Now, let’s get one thing straight: The reason they are flirting with the top four is not because they’ve been hanging with the best teams in England. Rather, it’s because they’ve been beating up on the bottom-half of the table.
In 11 matches versus the bottom-half of the table, West Ham has accumulated a +8.07 xGD and is averaging 1.89 xG per match. The good news for the Hammers on Saturday is that Fulham fits perfectly into that category. So, they should have plenty of scoring opportunities.
Perhaps the biggest addition the Hammers made during the transfer window was adding former Manchester United attacking midfielder Jesse Lingard. He tormented Aston Villa’s defense on Wednesday, netting two goals in his debut, and will be a big problem for Fulham’s defense.
Betting Analysis & Picks
I think this match is another perfect opportunity for West Ham to continue their dominance over the bottom-half of the table. What the Hammers showed us on Wednesday is that they are so good in the counterattack and can completely overwhelm their opponents, especially with the addition of Jesse Lingard.
Since I have West Ham projected as a -112 favorite, I think there is some value on them at +105 (DraftKings).
Pick: West Ham +105