Liverpool vs. Manchester City Odds
|Manchester City Odds||+106|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET|
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Premier League heavyweights Liverpool and Manchester City do battle Sunday in a huge match that will have major championship ramifications.
The Reds, who are coming off a shocking 1-0 loss against Brighton & Hove Albion on Wednesday at Anfield, are now seven points back of their counterpart and scrambling to stay in the mix during its title defense.
In contrast, it has been all roses for the high-flying Cityzens. The front runners, who are three points clear of rival Manchester United in the England’s top flight, are in the midst of a 20-match unbeaten streak. Burnley became their latest victim in a 2-0 shutout victory at Turf Moor during a midweek contest.
These sides played to a 1-1 stalemate in the reverse fixture, with Liverpool star Mohamed Salah giving his club an early lead before Gabriel Jesus equalized for the Cityzens in the first half.
The Reds have found themselves in a position they probably didn’t anticipate being in at this point of their campaign. Defeats at the hands of Burnley (17th place) and Brighton (15th) essentially took six points off their résumé, which has created this gap between them the Cityzens.
Yes, injuries have played a part in this situation, but a club like Liverpool should not be dropping points against those aforementioned teams.
Manager Jürgen Klopp did see a silver lining in the lead-up to this affair, with Alisson, Fabinho and Sadio Mané potentially all available after training ahead of this critical fixture.
Statistically, Liverpool continues to be one of the league’s best — both offensively and defensively — in the advanced metrics. The Reds sit on a stunning 41.8 expected goals and 24.6 expected goals against, resulting in a stellar +17.2 xGDiff and +0.78 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Things could not be going any better for manager Pep Guardiola and his side, which has won 13 on the bounce across all competitions and have earned a whopping 16 clean sheets in their last 20 matches during the process.
Bottom line, Manchester City has had its way with everyone that’s come across its path since a 2-0 road loss to Tottenham Hotspur back on Nov. 20. However, Guardiola will continue to be without two of his stars and that could make a huge difference.
The losses of Sergio Aguero and Kevin De Bruyne haven’t hurt the Cityzens as of yet, but Liverpool won’t have recent opponents Burnley, Sheffield United or West Bromwich Albion — three of the league’s four worst clubs — standing in front of them come Sunday at Anfield.
When comparing stats with Liverpool, Manchester City’s numbers are pretty much a wash. Bottom line, both clubs are part of the statistical elite.
The Cityzens are on 39.1 expected goals and paltry 14.7 expected goals against that result in a decent +24.4 xGDiff and +1.16 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Manchester City is the deserved favorite between league powers. The Cityzens are top of the table and can extend their gap over Manchester United with a victory in this spot.
However, the visiting side’s track record at Anfield is anything but pretty. Surprisingly, Manchester City has just one win in its last 29 matches on Liverpool’s home soil. That happened all the way back in May of 2003.
That said, I am backing Liverpool via the Draw No Bet line at a ripe price. The potential returns of Alisson, Fabinho and Mane would give Klopp’s group a much-needed boost that could put them over the edge.
Throw in the fact the away side has just one win in the last 24 meetings in this series, with Liverpool earning a 4-1 triumph back in November of 2015, and I like my chances with this wager.
I will also sprinkle a little on both teams to score as well. The number is a tad high at -155, so perhaps hold off taking this angle before kickoff and get on it with a live wager when the number ticks down in the opening half.
Picks: Liverpool — Draw No Bet (+160) | Both Teams To Score — Yes (-155)