Everton vs. Manchester City Odds
|Manchester City Odds||-295|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 3:15 p.m. ET|
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Manchester City looks to extend its lead at the top of the table Wednesday when it travels to Goodison Park to battle Everton.
The Toffees looked terrible Sunday, suffering a 2-0 home loss against relegation side Fulham. Everton was without star striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin, which resulted in it only being able to create 0.47 expected goals against a side that was allowing more than 1.50 xG per match.
Unfortunately for the Toffees, Calvert-Lewin is going to miss this match as well due to injury. Needless to say, Everton is going to be in a difficult situation facing the Premier League’s best defense.
Manchester City not only looks like the best team in England, but the top team in the world as this moment. The Cityzens have won 11 consecutive league matches, resulting in a seven-point lead over second place Manchester City.
Quite frankly, the most impressive stat from their win streak is they’ve conceded only two goals in the process. If Manchester City wins this contest, it could be curtains for everyone hoping to challenge the Cityzens for the title.
The Toffees have been really average offensively this season, creating only 1.37 xG per match. A lot of that has come from Calvert-Lewin, who is the club’s main goal scorer and averaging 0.64 expected goals per 90 minutes. Without him, Everton is going to have trouble creating high-quality chances.
In fact, in the two matches he has missed this season, the Toffees have only been able to create a total of 0.91 expected goals. The next closest scoring threat is Richarlison, who only has a 0.26 xG per 90 minutes scoring rate.
Everton have also overperformed for its seventh position on the table. Based on Understat’s expected points metric, the Toffees should have 9.19 less points to their name and should be in 13th place.
Everton has also found some difficulty versus teams ahead of them in the standings, going 2-2-3 with a -3.45 expected-goal differential. It has yet to face Manchester City this season, so this could be a rude awakening for the the Toffees without Calvert-Lewin.
The Cityzens are the best team in the world right now and have been destroying any opponent standing in their way. Manchester City’s last defeat came on Nov. 21 against Tottenham Hotspur. Since that point, the club has won 13 of its last 15 matches and outscored their opponents by a 36-3 margin.
You want to know what the crazy part of the Cityzens’ run has been? It’s all legit. Based on expected goals, Manchester City created 36.09 xGF and only allowed its opponents to create 6.19 expected goals.
The reason for Manchester City’s sudden defensive dominance is because manager Pep Guardiola made a change at both center back positions. John Stones and Ruben Dias have now played together for 12 matches, combing to allow an absurd 0.54 xG per match.
In fact, Manchester City has only allowed two goals during its 11-match winning streak, with Chelsea and Liverpool being the lone foes to find the back of the net. That said, I have a hard time seeing how Everton is not only going to create high quality chances, but score against the Cityzens.
Betting Analysis & Picks
To be honest, I don’t see how Everton doesn’t get shut out minus Calvert-Lewin on the pitch.
Manchester City has been too good defensively over the last two months and hasn’t allowed a goal to a team outside the top five, so I think there is some value on Everton’s team total under 0.5 goals that’s sitting at -103 odds.
Picks: Everton Team Total Under 0.5 Goals (-103)