Everton vs. Fulham Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+104 / -129)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 2 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
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Everton continues its quest to get back into the top four on Sunday when it faces relegation side Fulham.
The Toffees have been in solid form over the past month, picking up 14 of a possible 24 points in their last eight matches. They played one of the most thrilling matches of the season in the FA Cup on Wednesday, beating Tottenham, 5-4, at home.
However, Everton was dealt a big blow this week as star striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin and goalkeeper Jordan Pickford are going to miss this match due to injury. So, it’ll be interesting to see how the Toffees cope without two of their best players.
Fulham is in a relegation fight at the moment, as it sits in 18th place and 10 points away from safety. The problem for the Cottagers is they haven’t won very many matches, as their last win came on Nov. 30 against Leicester. A win on Sunday at Goodison Park would be massive for their fight to stay in the Premier League.
Everton has been really average offensively this season, as it’s creating only 1.37 xG per match. A lot of that has come from Calvert-Lewin, who is the club’s main goal scorer, averaging 0.64 expected goals per 90 minutes. Without him, Everton is going to have trouble creating high-quality chances.
However, the Toffees have found most of their success against the bottom of the table, collecting 19 of a possible 27 points in nine matches. Expected goals show those results are legit with Everton having a +3.09 xGD in those matches.
One interesting takeaway from Everton’s last few matches is Carlo Ancelotti switched their formation to a 4-4-2 for the matches against Leicester and Wolves.
The switch was not met with much success, as the Toffees have created a total of 1.61 xG in over 200 minutes when playing out of that formation. H
owever, since the Leicester match, Ancelotti has switched back to a 4-2-3-1, which has opened Everton up more and allowed it to create more chances. So, I think it should find a way to break down Fulham’s defense.
The Cottagers have really struggled to create high-quality chances over their 12-match winless streak. Fulham is averaging only 0.96 xGF over that stretch and has scored only four goals in its last eight matches.
However, Fulham’s biggest problem is that it allows way too many high-quality chances.
The Cottagers have allowed a ridiculous 1.74 xG over their previous seven matches. Fulham is also struggling to keep the top teams in the Premier League in check: It has allowed 1.98 xG against the top-seven teams in the table.
Fulham really struggled to defend Everton in the first matchup, allowing three goals in the first half and 1.99 xG for the match. Even without Calvert-Lewin, Everton should be able to create plenty of chances against Fulham’s defense.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Everton is very reliant on Calvert-Lewin to create chances for it, but I think it should be able to break down Fulham’s shaky defense without him.
Therefore, I am going to back the Toffees to get all three points at +102.
Picks: Everton +102