Another so-so matchweek last weekend as we had one winner, one loser and one void. The void came with Burnley drawing with Brighton as we took the draw no bet option for Burnley. They looked the more likely to win but failed to find a second goal. Southampton and Newcastle played out a cracker with Newcastle winning 3-2 in a game that saw us bag a pick and very nearly the 2-2 correct score. Leicester ended the weekend drawing away at Wolves 0-0 in a game they were the more dominant in, denying us the parlay too. So pretty much a wash last weekend.
- Picks total – 25 out of 61
- Parlays – 2 out of 20
- Correct scores – 8 out of 63
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren’t having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can’t afford to lose. And if you don’t agree with my picks, don’t bet on them. I’m far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I’m doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I’ll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I’m not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it’ll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won’t be previewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
Saturday, February 13th, 2021
Burnley @ Crystal Palace – 10:00 am ET
Crystal Palace couldn’t make it three straight wins, falling to Leeds 2-0 on Monday. The two previous wins have kept them far enough away from the relegation zone that they don’t need to look over their shoulder. But Crystal Palace isn’t playing well enough to be looking up ahead either. Since beating West Brom 5-1 on matchweek 11, they’ve scored just 10 goals in 12 games and conceded 23.
Burnley’s point against Brighton keeps them eight points clear of the relegation zone and prevented them from losing three straight league games. Their previous two games were losses to Manchester City (1st) and Chelsea (5th) so hardly shocking results and the game against Brighton was the first against a side in the bottom half since matchweek 16 (seven games ago). After losing the first two games against sides currently in the bottom half of the table to start the season, Burnley is unbeaten in the last seven such fixtures with four wins and three draws, including a 1-0 victory against Crystal Palace in matchweek 9. The highest-scoring game from those seven game was a 2-1 win against Wolves.
Only one of the last eight league meetings between these two sides has seen both teams score and just a total of 14 goals has been scored in those games with four wins apiece. All six of Burnley’s wins this season have been by one goal so it’s hard to back them with confidence but I think they at least avoid defeat here and keep up their solid form against bottom-half sides. If you’re feeling brave, Burnley to win by one goal is widely available at better than +400.
Crystal Palace 13th – 29 pts
Burnley 17th – 23 pts
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0 – 1 Burnley (Pinnacle odds +775)
- Single-game parlay – Burnley to win or draw and under 3.5 total goals @ -110 (Draftkings)
Aston Villa @ Brighton – 3:00 pm ET
Brighton’s draw against Burnley now makes it five games unbeaten and six games without either side scoring more than once. The six total goals in their last six games is despite an expected total of 14.3 goals. Brighton’s victory against Tottenham a fortnight ago remains their only home league win all season, drawing six and losing four. Despite the lack of goals, Brighton remains the team with the highest expected goals for and fewest expected goals against among all teams in the bottom half of the table.
Aston Villa’s up and down form continues as they’ve alternated wins and losses in the last six games. Last time out, they beat Arsenal 1-0 but needed some good fortune to take the points. They’ve managed to score in each of their last five games and have three clean sheets in that span. But the two games they have conceded in, they let in three both times. Only six teams have scored more than Aston Villa’s 36 this season.
The reverse fixture earlier this season saw Brighton win 2-1 and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we see the same scoreline to either team again. If Aston Villa’s win then lose then win run continues, they’ll be going home empty-handed and I think 2-1 to either team is a good bet but it’s such a tough game to call, we’ll err on the side of caution. Ollie Watkins to score at any time (+180) is also a good price as he’s scored four in his last five games and has played every minute of every league game this season.
Brighton 15th – 25 pts
Aston Villa 9th – 35 pts
Score prediction: Brighton 2 – 2 Aston Villa (Pinnacle odds +1150)
- Both to score and total goals – YES and over 2.5 @ +110 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, February 14th, 2021
Wolves @ Southampton – 7:00 am ET
Southampton’s miserable form continued with a 3-2 defeat at Newcastle last weekend. That was despite their opponents having a player sent off just before half-time and ending the game with just nine men. It was the first time in ten league games they managed to score more than once in a game but was the seventh time in 22 league games they had conceded three or more this season.
Wolves couldn’t back up their VAR assisted victory against Arsenal with a second straight win against Leicester, but they managed to hold out for a 0-0 draw. That was just their second clean sheet in 16 league games, although the 23 goals they’ve conceded in that spell isn’t disastrous. They still miss star striker Raul Jimenez and it’s quite telling that his four goals this season is tied-most for Wolves despite him not playing since matchweek 10.
The difficulty in picking this game is both teams meet in the FA Cup on Thursday. They are both evenly matched and drew 1-1 earlier this season, something I think we see a repeat of here. Wolves look like they may be turning the corner but Southampton will be desperate to end their losing streak so will need to ensure they don’t get something from this game. Whoever scores first may sit back and look to hold on as their recent form plays its part and neither side has defended particularly well enough to suggest they can hold on for a 1-0 win. I don’t expect a ton of goals but the need for both sides to score should see them both find the back of the net.
Southampton 12th – 29 pts
Wolves 14th – 27 pts
Score prediction: Southampton 1 – 1 Wolves (Pinnacle odds +525)
- Both teams to score YES @ -102 (Pinnacle)
- You can take all three picks @ +694. Or swap out the Burnley pick to ‘Burnley draw no bet’. That will give total odds of +865 and if Burnley draws, you still get a double with the remaining games at +316
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back later this week for the matchweek 25 picks.